Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-09 08:51Report Title - Weekly Report on the Shanghai Copper Market: Ample Supply and Slowing De-stocking, Shanghai Copper Likely to Move in a Range [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market is expected to move in a range due to relatively ample supply and slightly slowing demand growth. The report suggests light - position range trading, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Performance: The Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell this week, with a weekly increase of +0.3% and an amplitude of 1.98%. The closing price was 77,450 yuan/ton [4] - International Situation: In the US, the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly decline in labor productivity in Q1 2025 was 0.8%, the first decline since 2022, and the unit labor cost jumped 5.7%, the largest increase in a year [4] - Domestic Situation: In 2024, the sales volume of consumer goods trade - in exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan. In 2025, the special treasury bond support funds will be expanded to 300 billion yuan, and mobile phones and other digital products will receive purchase subsidies for the first time [4] - Fundamentals: The import TC spot index of copper raw materials continued to decline, and the supply of copper concentrate remained tight. However, due to sufficient port inventories and good pre - stockpiling by smelters, the overall supply of refined copper will still increase slightly. Downstream consumption support may weaken as it approaches the off - peak season, and the willingness to purchase has decreased. The inventory is still being depleted, but the rate has slowed down [4] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Contract: As of May 9, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 755 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 320 yuan/ton. The contract price was 77,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 181,319 lots, a week - on - week increase of 16,501 lots [10] - Spot Price: As of May 9, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 1,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 570 yuan/ton [13] - Premium and Position: As of the latest data, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 115 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 5,644 lots, an increase of 2,484 lots from last week [22] - Option Market: As of May 9, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai copper main contract fell below the 75th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 1.225, a week - on - week increase of 0.0723 [27] 3. Upstream Situation - Quotes and Processing Fees: As of the latest data, the copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 68,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 310 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29] - Imports and Price Difference: As of March 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3939 million tons, a 9.67% increase from February and a 2.8% increase year - on - year. The price difference between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 1,472.25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.31 yuan/ton [34] - Production and Inventory: As of February 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.803 million tons, a 6.09% decrease from January. The global capacity utilization rate was 80.9%, a 2.9% increase from January. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 750,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 125,000 tons [39] 4. Industry Situation - Supply - Refined Copper: As of March 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.248 million tons, a 0.48% increase from December and an 8.81% increase year - on - year. As of February 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper was 2.2 million tons, a 7.95% decrease from January, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.1%, a 1% increase from January [43][44] - Supply - Imports and Profits: As of March 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 354,275.469 tons, a 16.11% increase from February and a 15.86% increase year - on - year. The import profit and loss was 277.76 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 117.17 yuan/ton [51][52] - Supply - Inventory: As of the latest data, the LME total inventory decreased by 3,025 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 6,101 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 14,877 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 126,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons [55] 5. Downstream and Application - Demand - Copper Products: As of March 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.1252 million tons, a 6.49% decrease from December. The monthly import volume of copper products was 470,000 tons, an 11.9% increase from February and a 0% decrease year - on - year [62] - Application - Power and Home Appliances: As of March 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction increased by 24.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative investment in power source construction decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 16.5%, 11.9%, decreased by 4.3%, 12.1%, and 2.4% year - on - year respectively [68] - Application - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits: As of March 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 199.041692 billion yuan, a 9.9% decrease year - on - year and an 85.68% increase month - on - month. The cumulative output of integrated circuits was 10,946,586.3 million pieces, a 6% increase year - on - year and a 42.68% increase month - on - month [74] 6. Overall Situation - Global Supply and Demand: As of February 2025, the global refined copper supply was in surplus, with a monthly surplus of 61,000 tons according to ICSG. The cumulative global supply - demand balance was - 75,900 tons according to WBMS [77]