2025年4月外贸数据点评：4月出口：被低估的韧性？

Export Data Analysis - In April 2025, China's exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.0% and previous value of 12.4%[3] - Exports to ASEAN rose significantly by 9.2 percentage points to 20.8%, contributing nearly half to total exports[3] - Exports of integrated circuits surged by 12.3% year-on-year to 20.2%, benefiting from tariff exemption policies[4] Import Data Insights - Imports in April 2025 decreased slightly by 0.2%, outperforming the expected decline of 6.0%[3] - Imports from Hong Kong increased by 41.3% year-on-year, highlighting its role as a key import hub[5] - For the first time in seven months, imports from Latin America turned positive, indicating a shift in trade patterns[5] Trade Tensions and Future Outlook - Exports to the U.S. plummeted by 21% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of high tariffs and trade tensions[4] - The global manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction territory, indicating a slowdown in global trade activity[4] - Three scenarios for future export trends were outlined, with a potential decline of 4.3% if current tariffs remain unchanged[7]