棉系周报：宏观情绪扰动，郑棉不确定性增加-20250509

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of US cotton is expected to remain the same, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak in the short - term and continue to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Traders can consider shorting on rallies in the short - term [7][12][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: Uncertain weather may affect growth, and increased purchases from countries like Vietnam may have a positive impact. Short - term trend is expected to remain the same [7] - US Cotton Growth: As of May 4, the planting rate was 21%, 2% slower than last year and 1 percentage point faster than the five - year average. The main producing areas are still dry [7] - US Cotton Sales: As of the week of May 1, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing decreased, 2025/26 cumulative signing declined, and 2024/25 weekly shipment increased. Pima cotton signing and shipment also increased [7] - CFTC Position: As of May 2, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2507 contract decreased, and the total number of unpriced contracts of 24/25 sellers decreased, while the total number of ICE unpriced contracts increased [7] - Other Countries: Brazil's Mato Grosso state is expected to have a slight increase in seed cotton production. India's weekly cotton listing volume decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative listing volume accounted for 91% of the predicted output [7] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - Domestic Market: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated this week. After the release of macro - sentiment, it is expected to be weak in the short - term [12] - Supply Side: As of mid - April, China's commercial cotton inventory was 415.26 tons. As of April 15, the national cotton direct - seeding progress was 75%, and Xinjiang's planting intention area increased by 1.8% [12] - Demand Side: After "Golden March and Silver April", the market enters the off - season. As of May 8, the mainstream spinning mills' operating rate was 74.4%, and it is expected to decline next week. There are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream sectors [12] Option Strategy - Volatility Judgment: The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.5156 yesterday, and the implied volatility of some options increased slightly [19] - Option Strategy Recommendation: Sell call options [19][21] Futures Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: In the short - term, cotton supply is sufficient and demand is average. After "Golden March and Silver April", the market enters the off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation. In the long - term, the US economy may face recession, and cotton prices are expected to decline [21] - Specific Strategies: Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly strong, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and decline in the medium - to - long - term. Consider shorting on rallies. Arbitrage: Short September and long January. Option: Sell call options [21] Weekly Data Tracking - Internal and External Price Difference: Data on internal and external cotton price differences and 9 - 1 - month price difference trends are presented [23][24] - Mid - end Situation: Data on the operating rate and inventory days of pure cotton spinning mills and all - cotton fabric mills are shown [26] - Cotton Inventory: Data on national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mills' industrial inventory, and reserve inventory over the years are provided [27] - Futures - Spot Basis: Data on the basis of cotton in different months and the basis of US cotton are presented [29]