China Post Securities·2025-05-09 08:15Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - In 2024, the 71 tracked military industry stocks achieved a total revenue of 566.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 0.76%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.24% to 23.90 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in overall gross margin [4][20] - The shipbuilding sector showed significant performance growth, with a revenue of 190.05 billion yuan, up 11.25%, and a net profit of 6.55 billion yuan, up 115.10% [4][37] - The total contract liabilities for the 71 military stocks reached 198.56 billion yuan at the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.91% [5][58] Summary by Sections 1. Military Industry Performance in 2024 - The overall performance of the military industry in 2024 showed a slowdown in revenue growth and profit pressure, with a total revenue of 566.27 billion yuan and a net profit of 23.90 billion yuan [20] - The overall gross margin for the 71 military stocks was 17.67%, down 1.80 percentage points year-on-year [23] 2. Q1 2025 Performance Analysis - In Q1 2025, the 71 military stocks reported a total revenue of 106.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.15% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.61 billion yuan, down 4.40% [6][19] - The shipbuilding sector led the growth with a revenue of 40.99 billion yuan, up 9.81%, and a net profit of 2.05 billion yuan, up 232.11% [6][38] 3. Valuation and Index Performance - As of April 30, 2025, the military industry index had decreased by 4.21%, with a PE-TTM valuation of 96.49 times and a PB valuation of 3.27 times [7][49] - Historically, 74.88% of the time since January 1, 2014, the military sector's PE-TTM valuation has been below the current level [7] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: the ongoing demand for aerospace and the new technologies, products, and markets that may offer greater elasticity [10][11] - Key companies to watch include those in the aerospace sector such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, as well as companies involved in missile technology and new market opportunities [10][12] 5. Contract Liabilities and Future Outlook - The total contract liabilities for military stocks remained high, with significant increases in the shipbuilding sector [5][60] - The report anticipates a turning point in military orders as the "Centenary of the Army Building" goals progress, indicating potential growth in the military industry [8]