GUOMAO REDUCER(603915) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-09 09:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 2.589 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 294 million, down 25.78% year-on-year [5] - Short-term demand is weak, compounded by price competition affecting operations, but the long-term outlook is positive due to the company's focus on general, specialized, and high-end reducers, as well as humanoid robots, which are expected to solidify long-term growth [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, revenue was 662 million, up 1.98% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 85 million, down 34.24% year-on-year [2][5] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 602 million, up 2.82% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 43 million, down 33.43% year-on-year [2][5] - The company experienced a significant increase in non-recurring gains in Q4 2024, contributing to profits, while Q1 2025 saw a decline in profitability due to increased management and R&D expenses [10] Business Development and Market Opportunities - The core industrial transmission business remains strong, with a 5% year-on-year increase in total reducer shipments, and the company is capturing structural market opportunities in sectors like injection molding machines and smart logistics [10] - The company is actively expanding into specialized and high-end reducer markets, with new products gaining traction and orders from leading clients [10] - The company is also focusing on international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and emerging markets like South Africa and Brazil [10]