QINGDAO SENTURY TIRE CO.(002984) 海通国际·2025-05-09 08:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][8]. Core Views - The company's short-term performance is under pressure due to industry cost pressures and decreased production and sales. The EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered to RMB 2.14 and RMB 2.57, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at RMB 2.82. The target price has been reduced by 25% to RMB 25.68, applying a 12x PE for 2025 [4][8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to be RMB 8.51 billion and RMB 2.19 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 8.53% and 59.74%, respectively. The Q4 2024 revenue and net profit are expected to be RMB 2.17 billion and RMB 460 million, with year-on-year growth of 3.38% and 22.7% [4][8]. - In Q1 2025, the company is expected to report revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.06 billion and RMB 361 million, reflecting year-on-year declines of 2.79% and 28.29% [4][8]. Production and Sales Performance - By the end of 2024, the company's tyre sector production and sales are expected to reach 32.23 million and 31.41 million units, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 10.22% and 7.34%. The revenue for this segment is projected at RMB 8.50 billion, up 8.57% year-on-year [4][8]. - In Q1 2025, tyre sector production and sales are expected to decline to 7.92 million and 7.38 million units, with year-on-year decreases of 1.87% and 3.02% [4][8]. Strategic Developments - The company's "833plus" strategy is progressing steadily, with the Morocco project expected to achieve large-scale production in 2025. This project aims to produce 12 million high-performance tyres annually, enhancing the company's global competitiveness and profitability [4][8]. - The company has established a strong presence in the replacement market, with over 5% market share in the USA and over 4% in Europe for its tyre products in 2024. It is also recognized as a qualified supplier for several major automotive manufacturers [4][8].