固定收益点评：美联储降息的关注点是什么？

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflation expectation and tariff implementation may be the key observation signals for the Fed. The Fed emphasizes the risks of rising unemployment and inflation (stagflation risk), and the logic of inflation, economy, and tariffs has become more direct and clear. Whether it is one - time inflation or persistent inflation depends on the scale of tariff impact, the time for tariffs to be fully transmitted to prices, and the stability of long - term inflation expectations. The Fed reiterates waiting for clear guidance before considering adjusting monetary policy [3][13]. - For the future market, the expectation of interest rate hikes can be anchored to the "long - term interest rate expectation maintained at 2%". For the expectation of interest rate cuts, in addition to focusing on the Fed's key economic indicators, the only clear factor is the "clear and light implementation" of tariff policies. If the tariff negotiation process is slow, the expectation of interest rate cuts for the whole year should be lowered, or there may be only 2 interest rate cuts throughout the year [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Monetary Policy Remains at the Level of the March Meeting - On May 7th, the third FOMC meeting of this year ended. The federal funds rate remained in the 4.25 - 4.50% range, and other monetary policies remained unchanged compared with the March meeting. The pace of balance sheet reduction slowed down as before, with the monthly natural maturity of Treasury bonds adjusted from $25 billion in March to $5 billion [2][8]. 1.2 Inflation Expectation and Tariff Implementation May be the Key Observation Signals for the Fed - "Tariff" is an important keyword in this meeting. For the future market, the expectation of interest rate hikes can be anchored to the "long - term interest rate expectation maintained at 2%", and for the expectation of interest rate cuts, in addition to focusing on key economic indicators, the only clear factor is the "clear and light implementation" of tariff policies. As of now, only the UK has initially reached a negotiation with the US, and specific details need to be finalized in the next few weeks. If the tariff negotiation process is slow, the expectation of interest rate cuts for the whole year should be lowered, or there may be only 2 interest rate cuts throughout the year [3][10]. 1.3 Comparison of the May Press Conference and the March Statement - Stagflation Risk: Emphasize the risks of rising unemployment and inflation (stagflation risk) [13][14]. - Logic of Inflation, Economy, and Tariffs: The logic has become more direct and clear. The Q1 GDP decline reflects the fluctuation of net exports, which is likely due to large - scale imports by companies before potential tariffs. Private domestic final purchases (PDFP) maintained the previous quarter's level, with a slowdown in consumer spending growth and a recovery in equipment and intangible asset investment. The sentiment in household and business surveys has declined sharply, and the uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased, strongly reflecting concerns about trade policies. The attribution of inflation to tariffs has become more "direct" [12][13][16]. - Inflation Impact: Whether it is one - time inflation or persistent inflation depends on the scale of tariff impact, the time for tariffs to be fully transmitted to prices, and the stability of long - term inflation expectations. If the announced large - scale tariff increase policy is continuously implemented, it is likely to lead to rising inflation, slow economic growth, and increased unemployment [13][22]. - Long - term Interest Rate Expectation: Most long - term inflation expectation indicators are still consistent with the 2% inflation target [23]. - Price Stability: Price stability is emphasized as the cornerstone of a strong labor market [24]. - Monetary Policy Adjustment: Reiterate waiting for clear guidance before considering adjusting monetary policy [13][27].