电力行业3月月报：现货市场建设全面提速，火电发电量增速环比改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electricity industry [2]. Core Insights - The construction of the spot market is accelerating, with a goal for nationwide coverage by 2025. The "394" document encourages advanced provinces to transition to formal operations by the end of 2025, while non-pilot provinces like Shaanxi are expected to follow by mid-2026 [3][9]. - New energy sources will face competitive challenges as they enter the market, creating opportunities for third-party entities such as pumped storage and virtual power plants [3][10]. - The outlook for the spot market construction indicates a comprehensive rollout by 2025-2026, with regulatory resources expected to benefit continuously [3][11]. Monthly Sector and Key Listed Company Performance - In April, the electricity and public utilities sector rose by 1.5%, outperforming the broader market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 3.0% [13][14]. - Key listed companies in the electricity sector saw significant stock price increases, with Changjiang Electric rising by 6.08%, Chuan Investment Energy by 5.92%, and Zhongmin Energy by 5.73% [14]. Monthly Electricity Demand Analysis - In March 2025, total electricity consumption reached 828.2 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.80%, marking an increase of 3.50 percentage points compared to January-February [19][25]. - The electricity consumption growth rate for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 9.90%, 3.80%, and 8.40%, respectively, with residential electricity consumption growing by 5.00% [19][25]. Monthly Electricity Supply Analysis - In March 2025, total electricity generation was 7780.20 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.80%. The generation from thermal power decreased by 2.30%, while hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power saw increases of 9.50%, 23.00%, 8.20%, and 8.90%, respectively [46][47]. - The average utilization hours for various power generation types in March were 1036 hours for thermal power, 564 hours for hydropower, 1930 hours for nuclear power, 578 hours for wind power, and 263 hours for solar power [4][46]. Industry News - The report highlights that two ministries have mandated the completion of the electricity spot market by the end of 2025, providing a clear timeline for various regions [4][8]. - The approval of domestic nuclear power projects is set to resume for the first time in 2025, indicating a significant policy shift [4]. Investment Strategy and Valuation - The report suggests that the electricity sector is poised for profit improvement and value reassessment, particularly in regions with supply-demand imbalances. The ongoing growth of new energy installations and the emphasis on supply security are expected to enhance the value of coal power [4][11]. - Key beneficiaries in the electricity market include integrated coal-power companies and national coal-power leaders, as well as regional leaders in areas with tight electricity supply [4].