Mtalco(SH:601677) EBSCN·2025-05-09 10:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][16]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year increase in net profit per ton in 2024, with a total revenue of 32.32 billion yuan, up 22.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, up 29.76% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its product structure by increasing its focus on high-end applications in sectors such as new energy, electronics, and automotive, which has improved its product mix [1][3]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products starting December 1, 2024, is not expected to significantly impact sales, as foreign clients are adapting to new pricing methods [2]. - The company is actively developing high-end products and expanding its production capacity in response to market demands, particularly in the fields of new energy and automotive materials [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 1.4672 million tons of products, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, with a net profit per ton of 1,191.7 yuan, an increase of 100.5 yuan per ton compared to 2023 [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 8.124 billion yuan, a 13.07% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 440 million yuan, up 21.46% year-on-year [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 35.78 billion yuan in 2025 and 38.60 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 2.04 billion yuan and 2.27 billion yuan [4][12]. - The report has adjusted profit forecasts upwards, expecting net profits of 2.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2.27 billion yuan for 2026, and introducing a new forecast of 2.48 billion yuan for 2027 [3]. Market and Industry Context - The company is positioned well within the global aluminum market, which relies heavily on Chinese aluminum exports due to its established production capabilities and skilled workforce [2]. - The integration of electrolytic aluminum into the national carbon market is anticipated to benefit the company, particularly in the production of recycled aluminum, which has significantly lower carbon emissions [2].