苹果周报：需求表现尚可，果价稳中有涨-20250509

Group 1: Report Summary - Title: Apple Weekly Report: Demand Shows Well, Apple Prices Stable with a Slight Increase [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Report Sections: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies; Weekly Data Tracking [2][15] Group 2: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies Spot Analysis - Cold storage apple inventory is at the lowest level in the same period of the past five years, with high - priced goods mainly in Shandong and northern Shaanxi. Market demand decreases in May due to rising temperatures and more seasonal fruits. Shandong has strong reluctance to sell, and purchase has become more cautious. Shaanxi has stable prices, but limited tradable volume and high reluctance to sell [5]. - In Shandong, the weighted average price of bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods is 4.16 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin (0.48% MoM, 10.34% YoY). The Thursday closing price is 4.19 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin (1.21%) from April 30. In Shaanxi, the weighted average price of bagged Fuji 70 and above is 3.87 yuan/jin, flat MoM and up 0.1657% YoY, with the Thursday closing price flat from April 30 [5]. Supply Analysis - As of May 8, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio is 14.47%, down 3.98 ppts in two weeks, 10.77 ppts lower than last year. Shandong's cold storage capacity ratio is 21.72%, down 5.08 ppts; Shaanxi's is 13.62%, down 4.21 ppts. As of May 16, the national main - producing area cold storage inventory is 228.86 tons, down 37.91 tons MoM [10]. Demand Analysis - Recent apple arrivals in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao are average, with 63 - 76 trucks this week. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits on May 8 is 7.92 yuan/kg, up 0.29 yuan/kg from last Friday. The profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 season is 0.9 yuan/jin, flat MoM [13]. Trading Strategies - Trading logic: Low cold storage inventory, good demand, and potential impacts on new fruit production may lead to a slightly bullish trend. - Unilateral: Short - term, go long on AP10 at low prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [14] Group 3: Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - Data on apple exports, planting area, consumption, etc., are presented in charts [17] Inventory and Shipment - Charts show trends in national and Shandong cold storage apple inventory and national cold storage apple shipment [19][21] Spread and Basis - Charts show 1 - 5, 5 - 10, 10 - 1 spreads, and 1 - month, 5 - month, 10 - month basis [24]