Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of peanuts is average, the price of general peanuts is weak, the purchase price of oil mills is stable, the opening rate of oil mills is rising, the spot price of peanut meal follows the decline of soybean meal, the price of peanut oil is rising, and the oil mills are profitable. Although the market expects an increase in the planting area of new crops, the recent drought in Henan and other places provides strong support for the peanut futures market. It is recommended to go long on the October peanut contract around 8000, go long on the October - January spread at low levels, and try the option strategy of selling pk510 - p - 7800 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: The trading volume of peanuts is average, the price of general peanuts is weak, the purchase price of oil mills is stable, the opening rate of oil mills is rising, the spot price of peanut meal follows the decline of soybean meal, the price of peanut oil is rising, and the oil mills are profitable. The downstream consumption is still weak, the peanut oil inventory of oil mills has slightly increased, and the peanut inventory remains at a high level. The October peanut contract has rebounded, and the October - January spread has increased. The market expects an increase in the planting area of new crops, but there is a drought in Henan recently [4]. - Strategies: - Go long on the October peanut contract around 8000 [4]. - The current lowest warehouse receipt is around 8000 yuan/ton, and the futures price is slightly higher than the spot price [4]. - Go long on the October - January spread at low levels [4]. - Try the option strategy of selling pk510 - p - 7800 [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Peanut Prices: - Domestic peanuts: The prices in Northeast and Henan are weak. The price of large peanuts in Junan, Shandong is 3.95 yuan/jin, stable compared to last week; the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan is 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning and Fuyu, Jilin is 4.1 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from last week. The trading of general peanuts is average, and the price is weak [8]. - Oil mill油料米: The purchase price of oil mills is stable, generally between 7350 - 7700 yuan/ton [8]. - Imported peanuts: The price of Sudanese peanuts is 7950 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [8]. - Domestic Demand: - Oil mill opening rate: The purchase volume of oil mills has decreased, but the opening rate has increased. As of May 8, the opening rate of peanut oil mills this week is 15.26%, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% [11]. - Oil mill inventory: The arrival volume of oil mills this week is 19,600 tons, a decrease. The peanut inventory of oil mills is 153,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from last week. The peanut oil inventory is 40,700 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [11]. - Pressing Profit: The purchase price of peanut oil mills is stable, the price of peanut meal has declined, and the price of peanut oil has risen. As a result, the pressing profit of oil mills is 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to last week. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The price of peanut meal has declined to 3300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [14]. - Basis and Spread: - Spread: This week, due to a slight increase in the October peanut contract, the October - January peanut spread has risen from around 20 to around 60 [19]. - Futures - spot price difference: The current warehouse receipt is 8000 yuan/ton, and the general peanut price is 8100 yuan/ton [19]. - Peanut Imports and Exports: - Peanut kernel imports: In March, 13,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, and from January to March, 41,000 tons were imported, a decrease of 59.4% compared to the same period last year [22]. - Peanut kernel exports: In March, 18,000 tons of peanut kernels were exported, and from January to March, a total of 45,000 tons were exported, an increase of 21% compared to the same period last year [22]. - Peanut oil imports: In March, 32,000 tons of peanut oil were imported, and from January to March, a total of 87,000 tons were imported, a year - on - year increase of 30% [22]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Various data charts are provided, including the price trends of Shandong general peanut kernels, the purchase prices of oil mills, the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts, the opening rate of peanut oil mills, the peanut kernel inventory and pressing volume of peanut oil mills, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the spread between peanut meal and soybean meal, the price of Shandong peanut oil, the spread between different peanut futures contracts, and the import and export volume of peanuts and peanut oil [7][10][13][18][21]. - Specific data on the import price and cumulative import volume of peanut oil from different countries are also provided, such as the cumulative import volume of peanut oil from January to March 2025 is 87,051.45 tons, with an average import price of 1531.86 US dollars/ton [45].
河南产区干旱，花生盘面支撑较强
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-05-09 11:14