华鲁恒升：夯实成本优势，产能扩张促增长-20250509

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][5][9] Core Views - The company is facing price pressure on some products, leading to a revision of the EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.81, 1.98, and 2.19 RMB respectively. The target price is adjusted to 24.43 RMB based on a 13.5x PE for 2025 [9][11] - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a revenue of 7.77 billion RMB, down 2.59% year-on-year and 14.09% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 707 million RMB, down 33.65% year-on-year and 17.20% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to price declines [9][10] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 27,260 million RMB - 2024A: 34,226 million RMB - 2025E: 34,290 million RMB - 2026E: 35,863 million RMB - 2027E: 37,027 million RMB - The year-on-year growth rates are -9.9%, 25.6%, 0.2%, 4.6%, and 3.2% respectively [3][7] - Net profit (attributable to shareholders) is projected as follows: - 2023A: 3,576 million RMB - 2024A: 3,903 million RMB - 2025E: 3,843 million RMB - 2026E: 4,208 million RMB - 2027E: 4,653 million RMB - The year-on-year growth rates are -43.1%, 9.1%, -1.5%, 9.5%, and 10.6% respectively [3][7] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the company sold 2.59 million tons of products, an increase of 22.92% year-on-year but a decrease of 5.53% quarter-on-quarter. Sales performance varied across segments, with fertilizers up 36.74% year-on-year, while organic amines and acetic acid derivatives saw declines [10][11] - Price declines were noted in several product categories due to supply expansion, with revenue per ton changing year-on-year as follows: fertilizers -23.19%, organic amines -8.43%, acetic acid derivatives -9.08%, and new energy materials -19.57% [10][11] Expansion and Cost Management - The company is focusing on enhancing efficiency and market expansion despite price pressures. Ongoing projects include melamine resin and nylon 66, with future projects like a 200,000 tons/year dibasic acid project and BDO/NMP integration on schedule [11]