HKEX(00388)2025-05-09 11:10Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][39]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows significant growth driven by the buoyancy of the Hong Kong stock market, with revenue reaching HKD 6.831 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.2%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 4.077 billion, up 37.3% year-on-year and 7.9% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - The revenue structure is dominated by trading fees and transaction system usage fees, which accounted for 46.1% and 29.0% of total revenue, respectively, totaling over 75% [1][8]. - The company exhibits a high EBITDA margin of 76.6% in Q1 2025, reflecting significant scale effects [1][8]. - The effective tax rate has increased significantly due to the OECD's "Pillar Two" rules, which may keep the tax rate above 15% in the future, slightly impacting net profit [1][12]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In Q1 2025, the average daily trading volume (ADT) for cash securities reached HKD 225.4 billion, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 153.0% [2][20]. - The company has a light asset model with high gross margins, where operating expenses were HKD 1.516 billion, with personnel costs making up 64.4% of total expenses [3][35]. - The company maintains a stable dividend payout ratio of around 90%, with a historical dividend yield of 2%-3% over the past decade [3][35]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that southbound capital is a key driver of trading volume, with the southbound trading ADT for Q1 2025 being HKD 1.099 billion, accounting for 24.4% of the total ADT [2][20]. - The number of mainland companies listing in Hong Kong has become dominant, contributing to a rich pool of quality investment targets [2][26]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company show a steady growth trajectory, with expected revenues of HKD 26.237 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [4][47]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach HKD 15.428 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 18.2% [4][47]. - The report anticipates a slight downward adjustment of 5.56% in net profit estimates for 2025-2027 due to the increased tax rate [3][39].