LI AUTO(02015) 平安证券·2025-05-09 11:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [15]. Core Views - The launch of the L series smart upgraded models (L6, L7, L8, L9) is expected to enhance the company's market position, with stable pricing and attractive sales incentives during the initial sales period [4][6]. - The company is focusing on significant upgrades in smart driving hardware and comfort features across its new models, which include advanced laser radar and enhanced battery capacities [6][10]. - The competitive landscape for the L6 model remains favorable, while the L7, L8, and L9 models are set to face increased competition in 2025, prompting proactive product upgrades [6][9]. - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, targeting regions such as Latin America, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, which is anticipated to become a new growth engine [9]. Financial Summary - Projected revenue growth shows a significant increase from 123.85 billion CNY in 2023 to 271.34 billion CNY by 2027, with a year-over-year growth rate peaking at 173.5% in 2023 and stabilizing around 18.6% by 2027 [5]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 11.70 billion CNY in 2023 to 23.21 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 681.7% in 2023, followed by fluctuations in subsequent years [5]. - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable, with slight improvements from 22.2% in 2023 to 21.5% in 2027, while net margin is expected to increase from 9.5% to 8.6% over the same period [5][13]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in sales for the upgraded models following their launch, despite initial declines in sales volume due to competitive pressures [6][9].