东方战略周观察：百日成绩单：市场与外交双震荡

Domestic Policy - Trump administration focuses on border security and illegal immigration, attempting to repeal birthright citizenship, but faced legal challenges[3] - Government size reduction and spending control are prioritized, with support for efficiency reforms led by Musk[3] - Deregulation efforts include halting subsidies related to fossil fuel restrictions and supporting cryptocurrency[3] - Tariffs imposed on major trade partners to incentivize manufacturing return to the U.S. and increase domestic investment[3] - Significant cuts to federal research funding, forcing many universities to downsize[3] Foreign Policy - The administration's priority is the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with a focus on bilateral pressure for a ceasefire, but U.S. commitments to Ukraine remain unfulfilled[4] - New tariffs of 10% on Gulf countries aim to strengthen alliances and reshape oil supply dynamics[4] - Traditional allies like Canada and Mexico face tariff threats, destabilizing their supply chain positions[4] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with European allies seeking independent defense capabilities and trade partnerships excluding the U.S.[5] Market Impact - Market volatility is heightened due to tariff risks and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a rapid decline in the S&P 500 index[5] - CNN poll shows Trump's approval rating at 41%, indicating waning confidence among moderate voters[10] - The ongoing tariff war is expected to increase inflation, potentially forcing policy adjustments, but uncertainty may persist until midterm elections[10] Risk Factors - Tariff risks threaten the existing trade system, potentially accelerating international power reallocation[6]