4月金融数据前瞻及5月流动性展望

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, credit issuance increased year-on-year, reaching the second-highest historical level, with strong characteristics of "early momentum" in credit activities. However, in April, due to increased global trade frictions and seasonal factors, credit growth is expected to show a "smaller month" trend. Future credit readings will focus more on total demand recovery and the stability of the banking system's operations rather than just quantitative growth [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Credit Market Outlook - It is anticipated that new RMB loans in April will be between 300 billion to 500 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of about half. April is traditionally a small month for credit issuance, and the expected loan growth rate is around 7.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from March [4][5][15]. - The corporate sector remains a key support for credit expansion, with public sector medium and long-term loans and bills expected to contribute significantly, while short-term loans are projected to decline [6][8]. Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The monetary environment is expected to remain loose in April, with M1 and M2 growth rates showing significant improvement due to low base effects. M1 growth is projected at 3.5%, while M2 growth is expected to reach around 8% [18][20]. - A series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are set to be implemented in May, aimed at stabilizing the financial market and supporting economic recovery [26][27][28]. Consumer Lending Trends - Retail lending is expected to experience seasonal declines, particularly in mortgage loans, with consumer loans transitioning from a "price-for-volume" model to a "volume-price balance" approach. The overall consumer loan issuance is projected to decrease significantly compared to March [8][10][9]. - The real estate market shows signs of slowing sales momentum, with a reported 10.4% month-on-month decline in sales for major property companies in April [9]. Government Debt and Social Financing - New social financing is expected to be between 600 billion to 800 billion in April, with government bonds playing a crucial role in supporting this growth. The net financing of local government bonds is projected to be 528.1 billion, down from March [14][7].