Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-09 11:23Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the new energy sector, suggesting a bottoming out phase and waiting for a new cycle to emerge [1]. Core Insights - Lithium battery sector is entering a new cycle with opportunities, showing signs of profit recovery in Q1 2025 after a significant decline in 2024 [3][7]. - The photovoltaic sector is expected to see gradual improvement in supply and demand dynamics, with new technologies anticipated to benefit the industry [3][4]. - The wind power sector remains in a high-growth phase, with performance expected to continue improving [3][4]. - Investment recommendations focus on three main lines: true growth companies, cyclical recovery, and new technologies [3]. Summary by Sections Lithium Batteries - In 2024, 53 sample companies achieved a total net profit of 58.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63%. In Q1 2025, net profit reached 18.6 billion yuan, up 36% year-on-year and 41% quarter-on-quarter [6][7]. - The lithium battery sector is stabilizing with new product releases and a recovery in profitability observed in Q1 2025 [11][12]. - Different segments within the lithium battery industry are experiencing varied profitability, with downstream segments like batteries and structural components showing positive trends [11][12]. Photovoltaics - The supply-demand situation is gradually improving, with industry self-discipline expected to enhance the market dynamics [3][4]. - Key players in the silicon material segment are likely to recover profitability first due to their cost advantages [3]. - New technologies, such as BC technology, are anticipated to be released in 2025, benefiting equipment and material companies [3]. Wind Power - In 2024, 31 sample companies reported a total net profit of 13.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. In Q1 2025, net profit was 3.29 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The wind power sector is expected to see significant growth in installations, particularly in the offshore segment as construction peaks in Q2 2025 [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. True growth companies such as Ningde Times and EVE Energy [3]. 2. Companies poised for cyclical recovery like Hunan Youneng and Fulin Precision [3]. 3. New technology firms such as Xiamen Tungsten and Rongbai Technology [3]. - Supply-side reforms are also highlighted, with companies like Tongwei and Longi Green Energy being key players [3].