冠通研究：消息刺激情绪，盘面小幅上扬

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by export news, the price of urea remains high and firm. However, to meet the domestic tone of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the market price is strictly prohibited from speculation, and an intervention mechanism will be implemented if necessary. It is expected that the market price of urea will show a small upward trend on a stable basis. The export news boosts market sentiment to some extent, but under the tone of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, it is difficult for urea prices to rise significantly. It is expected that the market will fluctuate at a high level [1][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea opened higher and closed up today. The fundamentals are relatively stable. On the supply side, the operating rate is stable, with some upstream factories having minor maintenance and production cuts after the holiday. On the demand side, it is relatively sluggish. Agricultural fertilizer preparation is cautious, and industrial demand is not yet a rigid need. The inventory has turned to destocking this week, providing support to the market [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The main 2509 contract of urea opened at 1898 yuan/ton, moved lower during the session, and finally closed at 1893 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. The trading volume was 273,877 lots (+7,308 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 3,955 lots, and short positions increased by 5,538 lots [2] - Spot: Affected by export news, the price of urea remains high and firm. It is expected that the market price of urea will show a small upward trend on a stable basis. The ex - factory quotation range of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is still 1830 - 1850 yuan/ton, with slight differences in individual transaction prices [5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotation is stable, and the futures closing price has increased. Based on Shandong region, the basis has weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract is 17 yuan/ton (-1 yuan/ton) [8] - Supply Data: On May 9, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 199,900 tons, the same as yesterday, and the operating rate was 85.7% [11] Warehouse Receipt Data - On May 9, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4,970, the same as the previous trading day [3]