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冠通研究:经济不确定性预期,盘面区间震荡
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-05-09 11:31

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Amid high international market uncertainty, the Fed's inaction, and persistent market pessimism about the economy, the copper market has weak supply and demand. Although downstream demand recovery is slow and its sustainability is doubtful, domestic copper inventories are generally low. Currently, the market mainly trades on macro - information, and domestic stimulus policies are awaited. Copper prices are fluctuating slightly and moving in a range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: In May, multiple domestic smelters have maintenance plans, with an estimated impact on electrolytic copper output of 21,000 tons, and there are concentrated maintenance plans from July to September. In April, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products reached 438,000 tons, with the monthly data unchanged year - on - year. TC/RC fees are negative and the negative value is expanding, and the high sulfuric acid price compensates for some losses of smelters, but smelter inventories are tight [1]. - Demand side: After the holiday, demand recovery is slow, but the downstream operating rate is rising. In April, the operating rate of cable enterprises reached 86.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%, and orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month. The spot copper price is strong, and the market has strong demand expectations under the background of significant inventory reduction. However, the April manufacturing PMI and service industry PMI both declined [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The copper futures opened lower, rose during the day, and closed down, with intraday fluctuations under pressure. It closed at 77,450 per ton. The number of long orders of the top 20 was 119,830 lots, an increase of 1,607 lots; the number of short orders was 108,701 lots, a decrease of 1,677 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 65 yuan/ton, and in South China was 160 yuan/ton. On May 7, 2025, the LME official price was $9,390 per ton, and the spot premium was $23 per ton [4]. Supply - side Information - As of April 25, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 40.3 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.04 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 19,200 tons, a decrease of 375 tons from the previous period. As of May 8, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 90,400 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 191,800 tons, a slight decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 158,700 short tons, an increase of 2,094 short tons from the previous period [9].