市场预期偏弱，钢矿承压运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.63%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has weakened. Although production has decreased, demand has weakened more significantly due to holiday factors, leading to inventory increases. Rebar prices will continue to be under pressure and oscillate weakly to find the bottom [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil declined in an oscillating manner, with a daily decline of 1.34%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. The supply of hot - rolled coil remains high with large pressure, and demand has started to weaken. The price will continue to be under pressure, and it will continue to oscillate at a low level under the game between expectations and reality [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.57%, and the volume decreased while the open interest remained stable. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Although steel mills' production is stable and ore demand is high, there are concerns about the peak of demand, and the supply has returned to a high level. Ore prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5%, and imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.2%. In April, the total value of imports and exports was 3.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [6]. - In April 2025, 7408 projects started across the country, with a total investment of about 3.213894 trillion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of investment were Hubei, Anhui, and Heilongjiang, with total investments of 1.1257 trillion yuan, 446.783 billion yuan, and 374.669 billion yuan respectively [7]. - In April 2025, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%; from January to April, the cumulative steel exports were 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In April, China imported 522,000 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to April, the cumulative steel imports were 2.072 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In April, China imported 103.138 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a month - on - month increase of 9.8%; from January to April, the cumulative imports were 388.36 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and other products are shown in the black - metal spot quotation table, along with their price changes. For example, the national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,307 yuan, a decrease of 16 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) was 3,310 yuan, a decrease of 15 yuan [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented. For instance, the closing price of rebar was 3,022 yuan, a decrease of 1.63%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil was 3,157 yuan, a decrease of 1.34%; the closing price of iron ore was 696.0 yuan, a decrease of 0.57% [11]. 4. Related Charts - Steel Inventory: It includes the weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, as well as the total inventories (including steel mills and social inventories) [14][16][23]. - Iron Ore Inventory: It shows the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrates, etc., along with their seasonal changes and环比 changes [19][21][24]. - Steel Mill Production: It involves the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [28][30][32]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and inventory has increased. Although production has decreased, demand has weakened more significantly due to holiday factors and will continue to weaken seasonally. Rebar prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly to find the bottom [37]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The supply - demand pattern has changed, and inventory has increased again. Supply remains high, while demand has started to weaken. The price will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level under the game between expectations and reality [38]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern has changed. Although demand is relatively good, there are concerns about the peak of demand, and supply remains high. Ore prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly [39].