地缘局势升级引发油价反弹，PX、PTA供需、成本共振上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PX and PTA prices rebounded after a decline. Short - term geopolitical tensions led to an oil price rebound, strengthening cost support. With reduced supply pressure and increased polyester demand, there is an upward repair momentum for short - term valuations [3]. - The price of MEG maintained a volatile pattern. Supply increased slightly, demand from polyester and printing and dyeing industries rose, import arrivals decreased significantly, but the visible inventory did not decline, so the overall valuation remained volatile [4]. - PF and PR prices followed the cost increase. Production and operating rates of domestic polyester staple fiber and polyester bottle - chips increased, but demand did not improve significantly, and the spot trading atmosphere was weak. Short - term attention should be paid to cost changes [5]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 PX & PTA - PX: Cost - end support strengthened. Geopolitical tensions caused a short - term oil price rebound, while the long - term supply of crude oil remained loose. The domestic PX plant operating rate was 73% (down 1.4% month - on - month), and the Asian operating rate was 67.9% (down 3.3% month - on - month) [3]. - PTA: The processing fee declined, and the operating rate was around 75.6% (down 7.6%). Some devices were adjusted, with some in maintenance and others restarting. Factory inventory and warehouse receipts decreased, and polyester operating rates remained stable while weaving and printing and dyeing operating rates recovered [3][43]. 3.2 MEG - The price of MEG maintained a volatile pattern. As of May 8, the overall operating load in mainland China was 68.99% (up 0.56%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 66.75% (up 4.54%). The operating rates of polyester and printing and dyeing industries increased slightly. The planned arrival at the main port from May 6 - 11 was about 5.9 million tons, a significant decrease in imports. As of May 6, the port inventory in the East China main port area was about 79 million tons (down 1 million tons), and the visible inventory did not decline [4]. 3.3 PF & PR - The prices of PF and PR followed the cost increase. The domestic polyester staple fiber production this week was expected to be around 166,700 tons, and the industry operating rate increased slightly to around 83.93%. The weekly production of polyester bottle - chips was about 346,558 tons, an increase of 2,762 tons from last week, and the industry operating rate was 87.57%, up 0.70%. The weekly inventory of staple fiber factories was 343,600 tons (up 3.59% month - on - month), and the weekly inventory of bottle - chip factories was 231,300 tons (up 2.17% month - on - month) [5].