上游供应宽松，煤焦延续弱势

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of coke have changed little, with supply and demand remaining at a high level. Short - term demand is well - supported, but the growth rate of the demand side has begun to decline. It is expected that there is limited room for further growth in hot metal production. The domestic macro -利好 has been released, and the market has returned to the game between fundamentals and tariff policies. Although short - term coke demand is acceptable, there are still overseas risks and coking coal cost - side pressures. It is expected that the main coke contract will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the near future [5][33]. - For coking coal, domestic policy benefits have been realized, and the market has returned to fundamental trading. The current supply of coking coal is still expected to be loose, driving the futures to operate weakly. The market atmosphere is still bearish, which drives the coking coal price to operate weakly. The trend of Sino - US trade issues can be followed in the near future [6][34][35]. Summary According to the Catalog Industry News - In April 2025, China exported 1046.2 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%; from January to April, the cumulative export of steel was 3789.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In April, China imported 52.2 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to April, the cumulative import of steel was 207.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In April, China imported 3782.5 million tons of coal and lignite, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; from January to April, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 15267.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3% [8]. - On May 9, Mongolia's ER Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 3 clean coal was 800 yuan/ton, and all 12800 tons of the listed quantity were unsold [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Standard First - Grade Coke (Flat - Price) | 1440 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 32.71% | | Qingdao Port Standard First - Grade Coke (Out - of - Warehouse Price) | 1320 yuan/ton | - 1.49% | - 1.49% | - 34.00% | | Ganqimao Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1030 yuan/ton | - 0.48% | - 0.48% | - 38.69% | | Jingtang Port Australian - Produced Coking Coal | 1300 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 41.18% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced Coking Coal | 1400 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 36.36% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1446.5 | - 2.10 | 1478.0 | 1444.0 | 19882 | - 8388 | 50769 | 2405 | | Coking Coal | - | 877.5 | - 1.79 | 892.5 | 877.0 | 323286 | - 67585 | 403016 | 27997 | [14] Market Outlook - Coke: The fundamentals remain stable, with short - term demand supported but limited growth in hot metal production. After the release of domestic macro -利好, the market will focus on fundamentals and tariff policies. The main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5][33]. - Coking coal: Policy benefits have been realized, and the market returns to fundamentals. The supply is expected to be loose, driving the futures to operate weakly. Attention can be paid to the Sino - US trade issue [6][34][35].