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广东VS江苏:风格迥异的TOP2
Huachuang Securities·2025-05-09 12:13

Economic Comparison - In 2024, Guangdong's GDP reached 14.16 trillion yuan with a growth rate of 3.5%, while Jiangsu's GDP was 13.7 trillion yuan with a growth rate of 5.8%, narrowing the GDP gap to 462.5 billion yuan from 968.3 billion yuan the previous year[19] - Guangdong's GDP concentration is higher, with the last two cities contributing only 4% of the total GDP, the largest disparity among 24 provinces, while Jiangsu's last two cities contribute 21%, ranking fifth in terms of balance[22] Fiscal Dynamics - From 2019 to 2024, Jiangsu's average net contribution to the central government was approximately 280 billion yuan annually, while Guangdong's was about 780 billion yuan, resulting in an annual gap of 500 billion yuan, equivalent to 25.7% of Guangdong's average fiscal revenue[3] - In 2024, Guangdong's local revenue accounted for 22.6% of its total, while Jiangsu's was only 2.5%, the lowest among 31 provinces, indicating a more centralized fiscal structure in Guangdong[4] Infrastructure Investment - Jiangsu's infrastructure growth rate was 13.3% in 2024, significantly higher than Guangdong's 0.2%, which reflects a divergence in investment trends since 2022[53] - In 2024, Jiangsu's investment in electricity and heat production grew by 98.7%, while Guangdong's was only 3.9%[56] Real Estate Sector - In 2024, Jiangsu's land finance dependency was 49%, compared to Guangdong's 31%, indicating a higher reliance on land finance in Jiangsu[11] - From 2020 to 2024, Jiangsu's land-related revenue decreased from 1.28 trillion yuan to 900 billion yuan, a drop of 3.8 billion yuan, while Guangdong's fell from 1.16 trillion yuan to 520 billion yuan, a reduction of 6.4 billion yuan[11] Consumer Spending - Since the pandemic, Guangdong's consumer spending growth has lagged behind Jiangsu's, attributed to differences in income growth and consumer behavior[12] - In 2024, Jiangsu's rural residents had a higher disposable income compared to Guangdong, contributing to a more robust consumption pattern in rural areas[12] Industrial Structure - Guangdong's industry is more downstream, producing 44% of the nation's industrial robots and 39% of optical electronic devices, while Jiangsu focuses on midstream production, contributing 33% of chemical fibers and 46% of ships[13] - In 2024, Jiangsu's exports to Belt and Road countries accounted for 47.5% of its total exports, surpassing Guangdong's nearly 40%[13]