鸡蛋周报：供应端有所承压，蛋价偏弱走势-20250509

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. The egg price has shown signs of stabilization after falling to the current level. It is recommended to close out previous short positions for profit and wait and see. [16] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Spot Analysis - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas this week was 2.94 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.57 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.16 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.51 yuan per catty from last Friday. The price in the main producing areas declined weakly this week. [5] - The price of old hens first rose and then fell this week. During the May Day holiday, household consumption increased in the first half of the week, and the live poultry market had a fast turnover. The price of old hens continued to rise supported by the demand side. Later, the egg price dropped rapidly, the slaughter sentiment of the breeding end increased, and the demand weakened after the holiday, so the price of old hens showed a downward trend. [5] 2. Supply Analysis - During the May Day holiday, the terminal demand was weak, the sales in the selling areas were average, and most of them actively processed inventory. The shipping volume in the producing areas was stable and weak. After the holiday, the demand declined, and combined with the downward egg price, all links were cautious in purchasing, and the shipping volume in the producing areas decreased. By the end of the week, as the egg price fell to a low level, the turnover in some areas improved. Overall, the shipping volume in the producing areas decreased compared with the previous week. [9] - According to Zhuochuang data, the number of egg - laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas across the country in the week of May 9 was 17.25 million, an increase of 4% compared with the previous week. The average slaughter age of culled hens in the week of May 8 was 536 days, the same as the previous week. [9] - According to Zhuochuang data, the inventory of laying hens in the country in April was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.011 billion compared with the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, higher than the previous expectation. The monthly output of egg chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in April (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 46.985 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. [9] - Without considering delayed slaughter and concentrated slaughter, based on the previous replenishment data, it can be inferred that the approximate inventory of laying hens in May, June, July, and August 2025 will be 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively. [9] 3. Cost Analysis - The feed cost changed little during the week. As of May 8, the corn price rose to around 2360 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price fell to 3300 yuan per ton, and the current comprehensive feed cost was about 2642 yuan per ton, which was about 2.9 yuan per catty when converted to the feed cost of single - catty eggs. [12] - Overall, the price of corn increased slightly and the price of soybean meal decreased significantly during the week, so the breeding cost of laying hens decreased. This week, the egg price declined weakly. After the May Day holiday, the market replenishment was less than expected, and the demand side continued to be weak. Traders accumulated inventory actively before and mostly sold at low prices, so the egg price was under pressure to fall. Since the weekly average price of eggs decreased compared with the previous week, the breeding profit of laying hens continued to shrink. [12] - According to Zhuochuang data, as of May 1, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.11 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.29 yuan per catty compared with the previous week. On May 2, the expected profit of laying hen breeding was 20.07 yuan per chicken, an increase of 0.1 yuan per catty compared with the previous week. [12] 4. Demand Analysis - During the May Day holiday, tourism and outdoor consumption increased, and the market inventory was digested well. In the middle of the week, as the replenishment of each link ended, the market demand weakened and the sales volume decreased. At the end of the week, as the egg price continued to hit a new low, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase decreased. Overall, the demand was relatively weak during the week, and the sales volume in the selling areas decreased compared with the previous week. [15] - According to Zhuochuang data, as of the week of May 1, the sales volume of eggs in the representative selling areas across the country was 8816 tons, a decrease of 2% compared with the previous week. [15] - The inventory in the national egg market continued to accumulate during the week. The main reason was that the demand weakened after the May Day holiday, the sales in the selling areas slowed down, the inventory accumulated and the price declined, which forced the breeding and trading ends to slow down the sales and increase the inventory. At present, the egg price is running at a short - term low level, and the inventory may decrease driven by the Dragon Boat Festival stocking. [15] - According to Zhuochuang data, as of the week of May 1, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.19 days, an increase of 0.03 days compared with the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.33 days, an increase of 0.05 days compared with the previous week. [15] - This week, the vegetable price index was still at a low level. On May 8, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 87.76. The pork price index also decreased. As of May 8, the average national wholesale price of pork was about 15.94 yuan per kilogram, a slight decrease compared with the previous week. [15] 5. Trading Strategy - Trading logic: It is expected that the overall supply of eggs will still be sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, it shows signs of stabilization recently. It is recommended to close out previous short positions for profit and wait and see. [16] - Unilateral: Wait and see. [16] - Arbitrage: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract. [16] - Options: Wait and see. [16] 6. Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data on the inventory of laying hens, brooding chicken replenishment, weekly culled chicken volume, culled chicken age, average price of egg chicks in the main producing areas, and various price spreads and basis, but no specific analysis is made in this part of the text. [18][21][23][24]