原油燃料油日报：供需宽松叠加库存压力，原油延续低位震荡态势-20250509

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Supply-side OPEC+ maintains production limits, but the widening discount of Iraqi heavy oil and the contraction of US shale oil capital expenditure limit overall supply growth; on the demand side, apparent demand is under pressure due to factors such as narrowing refinery profits, weak refined oil consumption, and macro sentiment. The widening discount of SC indicates weaker domestic demand compared to the international market, while the strengthening of the spread of nearby contracts may suggest short-term relief of delivery pressure. In the short term, oil prices may remain in a low-range oscillation, with WTI and Brent fluctuating in the range of $58 - 61, and SC being weaker due to the RMB exchange rate and domestic demand. If the destocking during the US summer driving season falls short of expectations or there are no breakthroughs in geopolitical conflicts, it will be difficult for oil prices to find sustained upward momentum. In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to whether OPEC+ adjusts its production policy at the June meeting and the progress of China-US trade negotiations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Futures Price: On May 8, 2025, the SC crude oil price dropped slightly to 461.0 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 7.2 yuan (-1.54%) from the previous day, with an intraday fluctuation range of [458.9, 483.6], indicating weak market sentiment; the WTI and Brent prices remained stable at $57.95/barrel and $60.95/barrel respectively, lacking a clear short-term direction [1]. - Spread Change: The SC-Brent and SC-WTI spreads weakened by $1.09/barrel to $2.76 and $5.76/barrel respectively, reflecting an expansion of the discount of SC relative to international oil prices; the SC continuous - continuous 3 spread strengthened by 2.1 yuan to 14.5 yuan/barrel, indicating stronger support for nearby contracts [1]. 2. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply Side: Iraq adjusted its June Asian crude oil pricing strategy, widening the discount on heavy crude oil to $2.70/barrel, suggesting weak demand from Asian refineries for heavy crude oil; Iran reaffirmed its support for the OPEC+ production cut agreement, while ConocoPhillips cut spending due to oil prices falling below $60/barrel, implying limited growth in shale oil production. In addition, the deepening of China-Russia energy cooperation may support supply stability in the long term [2]. - Demand Side: The unexpected increase in US gasoline inventories and a 22.67% month-on-month decrease in Chinese refineries' orders for gasoline and diesel in April indicated a cooling of terminal consumption; the uncertainty of China-US trade negotiations further suppressed risk appetite [2]. - Inventory Side: The increase in US commercial crude oil inventories and the unexpected rise in gasoline inventories may intensify short-term concerns about inventory accumulation; under the continuous production cuts by OPEC+, the inventory pressure of OECD member countries may be marginally relieved [2]. 3. Industry Chain Judgment - Supply: OPEC+ maintains production limits, but the widening discount of Iraqi heavy oil and the contraction of US shale oil capital expenditure limit overall supply growth [3]. - Demand: Apparent demand is under pressure due to factors such as narrowing refinery profits, weak refined oil consumption, and macro sentiment [3]. - Spread: The widening discount of SC indicates weaker domestic demand compared to the international market, while the strengthening of the spread of nearby contracts may suggest short-term relief of delivery pressure [3]. - Price Trend: In the short term, oil prices may remain in a low-range oscillation, with WTI and Brent fluctuating in the range of $58 - 61, and SC being weaker due to the RMB exchange rate and domestic demand [3]. 4. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: The prices of various crude oil futures, spot prices, spreads, and other assets showed different degrees of change. For example, the SC crude oil futures price decreased, while the WTI and Brent prices remained stable; most spot prices decreased; some spreads changed significantly [5]. - Fuel Oil: The prices of fuel oil futures, spot prices, spreads, and inventories also showed different trends. For example, the FU futures price decreased slightly, while the LU futures price increased slightly; most spot prices decreased; some spreads changed [6]. 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply: On May 8, Iraq set the price of Basra medium crude oil sold to Asia in June at a premium of 45 cents per barrel over the Oman-Dubai average price, and the price of heavy crude oil at a discount of $2.70 per barrel; Iran reaffirmed its support for OPEC+ [7][8]. - Demand: Emirates Airlines suspended flights to Pakistan until May 10; in April, the transaction volume in the shipping market for gasoline and diesel from Chinese refineries decreased, with new orders down 22.67% month-on-month [9]. - Inventory: The unexpected increase in US gasoline inventories led to a decline in international crude oil futures prices [10]. - Market Information: ConocoPhillips cut spending due to oil prices falling below $60/barrel; China and Russia deepened energy cooperation; overnight oil prices dropped significantly; the prices of crude oil and marine fuel raw materials were weak, and the prices of marine fuel in the East China market decreased [11].