Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3] - The new industries included in 2024 have no quota gap for compliance, and the gap in the national carbon market may be slightly adjusted downwards, but the impact on the supply - demand balance is limited; the expansion plan brings short - term emotional bearishness, which may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas, and the bottom range of the CEA comprehensive price in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton [4] - The exhaustion node of mandatory circulation quotas is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter; if the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [4] - It is recommended that enterprises with quota gaps wait and see temporarily and purchase when the price drops to a suitable level [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Carbon Market Supply and Demand - The remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3] Price Forecast - The new industries included in 2024 have no quota gap for compliance, and the gap in the national carbon market may be slightly adjusted downwards, but the impact on the supply - demand balance is limited; the expansion plan brings short - term emotional bearishness, which may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas, and the bottom range of the CEA comprehensive price in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton [4] - The exhaustion node of mandatory circulation quotas is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter; if the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [4] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with quota gaps wait and see temporarily and purchase when the price drops to a suitable level [3] Market Quotes - For CEA, CEA23 is temporarily stable, CEA24 continues to rebound, and the rest decline to make up for losses; the volume of listed trading is 10.60 million tons, and the volume of bulk trading is 15.00 million tons [10] - For CCER, the volume of listed agreement trading is 4.00 million tons, and the average transaction price is 90.00 yuan/ton (-1.11%) [8][10] Price and Volume Details of Different Years of CEA | Year | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Transaction Volume (million tons) | Listed Agreement Transaction Volume (million tons) | Bulk Agreement Transaction Volume (million tons) | Total Transaction Amount (ten thousand yuan) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | CEA19 - 20 | 69.60 | -4.66% | | N/A | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 1329.41 | | CEA21 | 69.60 | -1.28% | 0.00 | N/A | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 15.00 | | CEA22 | 69.60 | -4.66% | 0.00 | N/A | 0.26 | 0.26 | 15.00 | 408.72 | | CEA23 | 69.70 | 0.04% | 0.10 | 69.50 | 19.12 | 4.12 | 15.00 | 16.78 | | CEA24 | 70.81 | 0.31% | 1.11 | N/A | 5.77 | 5.77 | 0.00 | 17.86 | [6][7] CCER Transaction Information - The average transaction price is 90.00 yuan/ton (-1.11%), the transaction amount is 360.00 ten thousand yuan, the transaction volume is 4.00 million tons, and the cumulative transaction volume is 174.99 million tons [8]
全国碳市场行情简报（2025年第71期）-20250509
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-09 12:48