软商品日报-20250509

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Pulp: ★☆★, with an unclear trend and no clear investment suggestion [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state and poor operability, waiting and seeing [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, short - term equilibrium, poor operability, waiting and seeing [1] - Timber: ★☆★, unclear trend, no clear investment suggestion [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, a clear upward trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★, a clear upward trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for various commodities. Some commodities are in a state of supply - demand balance, while others are affected by factors such as weather, production, and market sentiment. Overall, many commodities are recommended for short - term waiting and seeing [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, with stable domestic spot basis. Downstream cotton yarn inventory is accumulating, and demand is weak. Xinjiang's cotton sowing is almost complete, and the emergence rate has increased. Internationally, US cotton is in the planting stage, and the drought has eased. Brazil's output is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar rebounded. Brazil's production data in the first half of April was bearish, but most international consulting firms expect high sugar production in the 25/26 season. In China, sugar prices fluctuated. April's sales data was bullish, with low inventory. Overall, the upside space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. After the festival, the market shipment slowed down, and cold - storage inventory is low. The market's focus is on the new - season's output estimate. Due to high - temperature and windy weather during the flowering period, the fruit - setting rate may be low. There are still differences in production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, and Synthetic rubber - RU rose slightly, NR fell, and BR rose. Global natural rubber supply is increasing, and domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rates declined. Domestic tire operating rates continued to fall, and inventory increased. In April, China's rubber imports increased year - on - year. It is expected that RU&NR will fluctuate, BR will rebound, and cross - variety arbitrage can be held [6] Pulp - Futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices were stable. As of May 8, 2025, China's mainstream port pulp inventory decreased. External quotes were lowered, and downstream procurement was weak. The terminal consumption of base paper was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - Futures prices were weak, and spot prices were stable. New Zealand's log shipments entered the off - season, and domestic arrivals will decrease. The peak of log shipments has passed, and inventory has decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and futures prices are expected to remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]