国际贸易数据点评（2025.4）暨宏观周报（第3期）：二次抢出口效应开始凸显且未完待续-20250509

Export Performance - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, a 2.4 percentage point rise from March, driven by a second wave of export rush[3] - The strong export performance exceeded previous expectations of 5.7%, highlighting significant export momentum[3] - The trade surplus for April narrowed slightly to $96.18 billion, but remained at a high level[3] Import Trends - April imports saw a reduced decline of 0.2%, a 4.1 percentage point improvement from March[4] - The rebound in imports indicates stable overall domestic demand growth[5] - Key categories such as energy imports showed signs of recovery, contributing to the overall import performance[5] Trade Relations and Tariff Impact - The U.S. has begun to ease its tariff stance, which is expected to support continued export growth into the second quarter[6] - Exports to ASEAN countries rose significantly by 15.9 percentage points to 20.8%, while exports to the U.S. fell sharply by 21.0%[4] - The ongoing trade negotiations between China and the U.S. may further influence export dynamics in the coming months[6] Sector-Specific Insights - The semiconductor and electronics sectors contributed positively to total exports, adding 0.4 percentage points to the year-on-year growth[5] - Automotive and steel products, which had previously faced tariffs, have seen adjustments in export destinations, enhancing their contribution to overall export growth[5] - Mid-range consumer goods experienced a short-term decline in exports due to tariff impacts, but are expected to recover gradually[5] Economic Outlook - The risk of export decline remains in the second half of the year due to ongoing uncertainties in global trade policies[7] - The Chinese economy's resilience will depend on stabilizing real estate market expectations and boosting consumer demand[6] - Monetary and fiscal policies are being adjusted to support economic stability amid complex international conditions[6]