二永债可适当拉长久期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the market had a strong appetite for secondary and perpetual bonds, especially at the beginning of the month, but the secondary - market performance was not strong due to sufficient supply. After the unexpected monetary policy was implemented by the central bank at the beginning of May, the liquidity environment is expected to improve further. With the rapid recovery of wealth - management scale in April, the supply - demand relationship is also expected to improve compared to April. Under the conditions of possible improvements in liquidity and supply - demand relationship, the duration of secondary and perpetual bonds can be appropriately extended to earn higher coupon opportunities. At the same time, cases of non - redemption by weak entities are still emerging, so it is not recommended to overly focus on rural and urban commercial banks. The main exploration logic lies in the allocation of debt - resolution resources, with the bottom - line control set at large city commercial banks in central regions and individual rural commercial banks in high - quality regions [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Enterprise Perpetual Bonds 3.1.1 Primary Market - The net financing amount turned positive from negative. In April, 140 enterprise perpetual bonds were issued, raising a total of 152.9 billion yuan, a 34% increase from the previous month. The repayment scale increased to 142.4 billion yuan, a 5% month - on - month increase, resulting in a net inflow of 10.5 billion yuan. The proportion of AAA - rated high - grade issuers rose to 88%. The issuance costs of AAA and AA+ issuers decreased by 35bp and 27bp respectively, while the AA - rated issuance rate increased by 57bp [5][11]. - In terms of industries, the top three industries in terms of issuance volume were public utilities, urban investment, and building decoration. Urban investment perpetual bonds were newly issued in 11 provinces, with Jiangsu having the largest financing scale of 13 billion yuan, a 78% month - on - month increase. The building decoration industry raised 23.9 billion yuan, remaining basically flat month - on - month. The public utilities industry raised 41 billion yuan, an 82% month - on - month increase [13]. - Among the 140 newly issued enterprise perpetual bonds in April, 73 were sub - bonds, with a scale of 95.4 billion yuan. The proportion of sub - bonds in terms of quantity and scale decreased to 52% and 62% respectively [15]. 3.1.2 Secondary Market - The yields of industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds declined rapidly and then fluctuated at a low level. The risk - free yield curve showed a bull - flattening trend, and the credit spreads at the short and long ends were differentiated. The short - end spreads narrowed, while the medium - and long - end spreads widened. The yields of industrial perpetual bonds fluctuated downward, with the AAA - rated 1Y yield dropping by up to 13bp. The yields of urban investment bonds across all grades and tenors declined, with the AAA - rated and AA - rated 1Y yields dropping by up to 13bp [21]. - In terms of variety spreads, the variety spreads of urban investment and industrial perpetual bonds mostly widened slightly. For urban investment bonds, except for the 1Y and 3Y variety spreads of AAA - rated bonds narrowing by 1 - 2bp, the rest widened. For industrial bonds, the 3Y and 5Y variety spreads of AA+ - rated bonds narrowed, while the rest widened, especially the AA - rated bonds [23]. - In April, the trading volume and turnover rate of enterprise perpetual bonds decreased month - on - month. After adjusting for trading days, the turnover rate was 11.25%, a 1.27 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The top three industries in terms of trading volume were urban investment, public utilities, and building decoration. No new cases of non - redemption of enterprise perpetual bonds occurred in April [5][28]. 3.2 Financial Perpetual and Sub - Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - The issuance volume of financial perpetual bonds increased significantly month - on - month. In April, 11 financial perpetual bonds were newly issued, raising a total of 86.1 billion yuan, a 36% increase from the previous month. Among them, 7 were issued by banks, and 2 each by securities firms and AMC. The total maturity of financial perpetual bonds was 67.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net inflow of 18.3 billion yuan [34]. - The issuance volume of financial sub - bonds increased slightly, with banks contributing the main share. In April, financial sub - bonds were issued worth 65.5 billion yuan, with bank secondary capital bonds accounting for 57 billion yuan and securities firm sub - bonds for 5.5 billion yuan. The total maturity was 45.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net inflow of 20.4 billion yuan [39]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market - For perpetual bonds, the spreads of most financial institutions continued to narrow in April. Except for the 4bp widening of the spread of AAA - rated insurance, the spreads of other types of institutions continued to narrow. The spread of AAA - rated banks narrowed by up to 7bp, and that of AA+ - rated banks by 5bp. In terms of bank types, the narrowing amplitude was state - owned banks ≈ joint - stock banks ≈ city commercial banks > rural commercial banks. In terms of tenors, the spreads of high - grade, short - term banks narrowed significantly, while those of low - grade, long - term banks even widened slightly [46]. - For sub - bonds, the spread of low - grade insurance capital - supplementary bonds fluctuated greatly in April, while the spreads of other institutions mostly narrowed. The spread of AAA - rated insurance capital - supplementary bonds narrowed by 7bp, while that of AA+ widened by 24bp. The spreads of bank secondary capital bonds and securities firm sub - bonds narrowed by up to 4bp, and that of bank TLAC bonds by 5bp [48]. - In April, the total trading volume and turnover rate of bank perpetual bonds declined month - on - month. The trading volumes of bank, securities, AMC, and insurance perpetual bonds were 455.9 billion yuan, 14.9 billion yuan, 8.5 billion yuan, and 16.4 billion yuan respectively. The adjusted monthly turnover rates were 18.59%, 5.13%, 15.66%, and 6.98% respectively, with the total turnover rate decreasing by 6.12 percentage points year - on - year [50]. - For sub - bonds, the trading volume and turnover rate of bank secondary capital bonds declined slightly in April. The trading volumes of bank secondary capital bonds, bank TLAC bonds, securities firm sub - bonds, and insurance capital - supplementary bonds were 797.1 billion yuan, 17.9 billion yuan, 24.2 billion yuan, and 24.1 billion yuan respectively. The adjusted monthly turnover rates all decreased, and the total turnover rate decreased by 0.98 percentage points to 16.46%. One new case of non - redemption of bank secondary capital bonds occurred in April, involving Nanchang Rural Commercial Bank [54][58]. 3.3 ABS 3.3.1 Primary Market - In April, 171 ABS projects were issued, raising a total of 174 billion yuan. The number of issuances decreased by 10% month - on - month, and the total financing amount was basically the same as in March. The primary underlying asset was personal consumer loan ABS, followed by financial leasing and specific non - financial claims. The financing scale of urban - investment - related ABS in April was 15.8 billion yuan, showing a continuous monthly increase [60]. - The issuance volume of real - estate - related ABS decreased month - on - month in April, with a total issuance of 1.6 billion yuan, all of which were supply - chain ABS. The financing costs were concentrated between 2.15% and 3.60%. In terms of bond ratings, the proportion of high - grade ABS projects remained at a historical high in April, with AAAsf - rated bonds accounting for 96% of the issuance scale. The issuance costs of all tenors decreased significantly month - on - month, with a decrease of more than 10bp for medium - and short - term bonds [63][64]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - In April, the yields to maturity of ABS across all grades and tenors declined, with the short - end decline being greater than the long - end. The short - term credit spreads of ABS across all grades narrowed by 6 - 7bp, while the 3Y - 5Y credit spreads widened by 2 - 9bp [66]. - The secondary - market trading activity of ABS declined slightly month - on - month in April. The total secondary - market trading volume was 163.2 billion yuan. After adjusting for trading days, the turnover rate decreased by 0.72 percentage points to 5.30%. The top three underlying assets in terms of trading volume were real - estate investment trusts (Reits), personal consumer loans, and accounts - receivable ABS. There were small - scale discounted transactions of Haifa Baocheng, Xinhu Zhongbao, and Gemdale ABS in April [68].