2025年4月进出口数据点评：出口增速超预期后怎么走？

Export Data - In April 2025, China's exports reached $315.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%[1] - Imports totaled $219.51 billion, showing a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year[1] - The trade surplus narrowed to $96.18 billion, which is a 33.61% increase compared to the previous year[1] Export Performance - April's export growth rate decreased from 12.4% in March to 8.1%, influenced by a low base from the previous year[3] - Exports to the U.S. fell by 21.03%, the lowest since August 2023, while exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8%[3] - High-value products like medical instruments and machinery showed strong performance, with growth rates of 8.41% and 17.02% respectively[3] Import Trends - The decline in imports was less severe, with a notable structural differentiation in imported goods[3] - Imports of primary products like soybeans and natural gas decreased by 14.6% and 9.2% respectively, indicating uneven domestic demand recovery[3] - Mechanical and electrical products saw a 5.7% increase in imports, reflecting a rebound in domestic manufacturing needs[3] Market Outlook - Global economic slowdown, particularly in developed economies, is expected to impact China's export orders and growth rates[4] - The manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1%, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector[4] - The ongoing high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese goods continue to exert downward pressure on exports[4]