国防军工行业2024年报和2025一季报业绩综述：短期业绩筑底，看好下游需求释放

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintained)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The military industry is experiencing a short-term performance bottoming out, with revenue and profit under pressure in 2024 and Q1 2025. The overall revenue for the military sector is projected to be 578.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 19.5 billion yuan, down 39% year-on-year [1][2] - The report highlights three main investment themes for 2025: new domains and new qualities, military trade, and restructuring [3][4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The military sector's revenue and profit are both declining, with Q1 2025 revenue at 110.4 billion yuan, flat year-on-year, and net profit at 5.8 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year. Excluding 11 shipbuilding companies, the remaining 124 companies are expected to see a revenue decrease of 4% and a net profit decrease of 54% in 2024 [1][2] - The gross margin for the military sector in 2024 is projected to be 20.8%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is expected to be 3.5%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] Sector Breakdown - In Q1 2025, the aerospace equipment sector is expected to see a revenue decline of 4% and a net profit decrease of 20%. The military electronics sector is projected to experience a revenue drop of 12% and a net profit decrease of 111% in 2024 [3][4] - The report indicates that the growth in contract liabilities and inventory in certain areas suggests strong downstream demand, which is expected to lead to performance recovery in Q2 2025 [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on downstream main engine manufacturers and high-barrier, well-structured midstream targets, including companies like China Shipbuilding, AVIC, and others in the aerospace and military electronics sectors [7][9] - The new domains and new qualities are highlighted as significant future equipment directions, including drones and commercial aerospace, which are expected to accelerate in 2025 [3][4][9]