受中国市场拖累，25Q1量价均承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) [6] Core Views - Budweiser APAC's Q1 2025 performance was impacted by the Chinese market, with revenue of $1.461 billion, a year-on-year decline of 7.5% [1] - The company is focusing on high-end and super high-end products, particularly in the Indian market, which showed growth despite overall challenges [3][4] - The report anticipates continued pressure in the Chinese market but sees potential recovery in the second half of 2025 as inventory issues are resolved [4] Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue was $1.461 billion, with normalized EBITDA of $485 million, and net profit of $234 million, reflecting declines of 11.2% and 18.5% year-on-year respectively [1] - The company achieved a gross margin of 51.0% in Q1 2025, with a normalized EBITDA margin of 33.2% [2] Regional Performance - Eastern region showed positive growth with revenue and normalized EBITDA increasing by 11.7% and 24.4% year-on-year, while the Western region faced declines of 11.7% and 17.6% respectively [3] - In China, revenue and normalized EBITDA fell by 12.7% and 17.1% year-on-year, with a volume decline of 9.2% [4] Future Projections - The report has revised down net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to $752 million, $797 million, and $841 million, reflecting adjustments of 5%, 7%, and 8% respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 19x for 2025, 18x for 2026, and 17x for 2027 [4]