白酒行业24年&25Q1业绩综述报告：顺利度过压力测试，关注底部区间配置价值

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the liquor sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently at a low point, potentially representing the bottom of this adjustment cycle, with a focus on high dividend yield investment value [2][3] - The report highlights that since the second half of 2024, liquor companies have generally experienced a slowdown, indicating the current bottom range for the industry [2] - There is an increasing trend of concentration and differentiation, with leading liquor companies demonstrating resilience [2] - The report notes a decline in contract liabilities and an increase in sales expense ratios, emphasizing channel relief and a focus on the consumer end [2] - Fourteen liquor companies have increased their dividend payout ratios, with high dividend yield companies expected to exceed 4% in 2025, including Yanghe, Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, and Gujing Gongjiu [2] Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, liquor companies' revenue performance stabilized, achieving steady growth, with a concentration accelerating towards high-end and regional leading liquor companies [9] - The liquor industry achieved a revenue of CNY 4,417.7 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, although the growth rate slowed compared to 2023 [9] - For Q1 2025, the liquor industry revenue was CNY 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [9] 2. Profitability Analysis - The high-end product resilience and the ongoing upgrade of mass-market products have contributed to an increase in gross margins, although net margins slightly declined due to rising expense ratios [20] - The gross margin for the liquor industry increased by 0.75 and 0.29 percentage points year-on-year to 81.82% and 81.50% for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [20] - The net profit margin for the liquor industry decreased by 0.02 and 0.25 percentage points to 39.10% and 42.57% for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [20] 3. Investment Recommendations - The liquor sector is still at a low point, and the report continues to recommend focusing on companies with strong brand momentum, early inventory clearance, and reasonable growth targets [3] - High-end liquor recommendations include Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, while for mid-range and regional liquor, Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu are suggested [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of two main lines: the certainty of sustained momentum in high-end liquor and the elasticity of recovery from low bases in mid-range and regional liquor [3]