煤炭周报：板块业绩有望筑底，寻找相对确定性机会-20250511

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to recover as macroeconomic conditions improve and demand increases, with companies that have high long-term contracts showing more stable performance [4][5] - The report highlights that the coal sector's performance has been negatively impacted by falling prices and declining profits, but there are signs of potential recovery as supply stabilizes and demand improves [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Data Tracking - Coal prices have decreased, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price at 630 CNY/ton, down 3.37% [9][10] - The overall revenue for the coal industry in 2024 is projected to be 31,603.3 billion CNY, a decrease of 11.1% year-on-year [4] - The first quarter of 2025 saw coal industry revenue at 6,279 billion CNY, down 19% year-on-year [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Railway coal input to Qinhuangdao port increased by 1.52%, while port throughput decreased by 6.32% [38][43] - The report notes that domestic coal prices are under pressure due to weak demand and increased supply from recovering production [4][5] Inventory Analysis - Total coal inventory at major ports decreased, with southern ports showing a reduction of 1.29% and northern ports down by 0.13% [45] - Qinhuangdao port's inventory increased by 6.38% to 750,000 tons, indicating a mixed inventory trend [46][48] International Coal Market - International coal prices have shown divergence, with Newcastle coal price down by 1.06% and IPE Rotterdam coal price down by 2.71% [54][56] - The price gap between domestic and international coal has widened, with domestic coal becoming less competitive [57] Market Performance - As of May 9, 2025, the coal sector's performance has lagged behind the broader market, with a 1.52% increase compared to a 1.92% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [59]