氮磷肥内外价差增扩，关注出口相关政策变化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index rising by 2.1% from April 30 to May 9, 2025, compared to a 1.9% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [6][17] - The report highlights the widening price gap between domestic and international nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers, indicating potential export opportunities [6][27] - The domestic urea production is projected to reach 67.54 million tons in 2024, with a supply surplus expected due to limited export policies [28] - The report suggests that the chemical industry may enter a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by recent policy changes and supply-side reforms [14][15] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the chemical industry is likely to benefit from recent government policies aimed at boosting demand and stabilizing the economy [14] - It identifies four main investment themes: core assets entering a long-term value zone, industries with supply constraints showing elasticity, demand certainty in specific sectors, and high-dividend resource stocks [15] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 3.3%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [17][21] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 364 stocks rose, with notable gainers including Heng Tian Hai Long (+23.6%) and Yu San Xia A (+23.2%) [25][26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - A meeting was held by the National Development and Reform Commission to discuss the export of fertilizers, emphasizing a principle of prioritizing domestic supply while allowing for controlled exports [27] - The report notes significant price differences for urea and phosphate fertilizers between domestic and international markets, suggesting potential for increased exports if policies change [28]