Minsheng Securities·2025-05-11 06:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Yunnan Aluminum, and Huayou Cobalt [4][7]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals with U.S. non-farm employment exceeding expectations while concerns about potential tariffs and economic stagnation persist. Domestic monetary easing measures are expected to support industrial metal prices [2][3]. - The report highlights a shift in the supply-demand balance for cobalt, with supply tightening due to export bans and high production costs, potentially leading to price increases [3]. - Precious metals are expected to benefit from rising geopolitical tensions and increased central bank gold reserves, with a bullish outlook on gold prices [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to a decline in downstream demand and a weak order intake, despite tight supply conditions. The SMM copper cable enterprise operating rate fell to 83.49%, down 5.96 percentage points [2]. - Aluminum production capacity remains stable, with a notable reduction in social inventory, which decreased by 16,000 tons during the week. The report suggests that aluminum prices may experience volatility due to mixed macroeconomic signals and seasonal demand fluctuations [2][21]. - Zinc prices are influenced by international trade uncertainties and domestic inventory levels, with the market expected to remain volatile [2][47]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to supply constraints from export bans and high production costs, while lithium prices are under pressure from weak demand and high inventory levels [3]. - Nickel prices are expected to see moderate increases as demand from precursor manufacturers improves, despite ongoing supply challenges [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and increased central bank purchases, with a bullish outlook for the medium to long term. Silver prices are expected to rebound more significantly than gold due to its industrial applications [3][71]. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) with a PE of 15 for 2024A - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) with a PE of 11 for 2025E - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ) with a PE of 11 for 2025E - Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) with a PE of 14 for 2024A [4].