碳酸锂：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷，偏弱震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate showed a unilateral decline. The LC2507 contract of lithium carbonate decreased, with short - position reduction and stabilization during the period, followed by an increase in positions and a further decline. The 2507 contract closed at 63,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,240 yuan/ton, the 2509 contract closed at 64,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,360 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 3,000 yuan/ton to 65,250 yuan/ton. The SMM basis (2505 contract) strengthened by 240 yuan/ton to 2,230 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quotation was +360 yuan/ton, a week - on - week strengthening of 60 yuan/ton. The spread between the 2507 - 2509 contracts was - 1,280 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan/ton [1]. - The supply and demand fundamentals show that terminal demand is falling, and upstream costs are rapidly collapsing. Lithium ore prices continue to decline, and the decline rate has further increased. Although lithium ore prices are falling, most Australian mining companies maintain their production plans and shipments. Overseas salt lake suppliers cancel the previously set annual floor price and lower the discount coefficient. Domestic lithium carbonate production continues to decrease, with the largest production cuts in spodumene and salt lake enterprises, and the operating rate has declined. Affected by the US tariffs on domestic energy storage and overseas new energy vehicles, the subsequent production of battery cells is expected to be revised downwards. The inventory of finished products and raw materials of cathode material production enterprises is relatively high, and they lock in production profits by buying raw materials at the futures price and selling finished products at the spot price. The terminal market demand in May is sluggish, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles during the May Day holiday is lower than expected. Social inventory has changed from inventory accumulation to a slight inventory reduction, mainly due to the reduction in downstream demand. The lithium carbonate inventory is 132,000 tons, a decrease of 464 tons compared with last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts is 36,400 tons, an increase of 2,874 tons [2]. - The future market is expected to operate weakly. The fundamentals are expected to remain weak in both supply and demand. The decline in ore prices squeezes the production profit of mines, but there is no obvious reduction in ore supply. The industrial chain is still in the process of profit squeeze being transmitted upstream, and there is no obvious driving force for a rebound and repair. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [3]. - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations, and the price of the 2507 contract is expected to operate in the range of 65,000 - 69,000 yuan/ton [4]. - For inter - period trading, it is recommended to focus on left - hand trading mainly for positive spreads, with the driving forces coming from the expectation of ore production cuts, the expectation of basis strengthening, and the expectation of exempted brands. For hedging, it is recommended to conduct 30% long - hedging and 10% short - hedging. However, due to the lag in the decline of the long - term agreement benchmark price and the strengthening of the basis, there is a basis risk in long - hedging [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The report provides a table of the price overview of the lithium industry chain spot market, including the prices and price changes of various lithium - related products such as lithium fluoride, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolyte, and different grades of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, cathode materials, and lithium batteries [9]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side - Lithium Ore - The report shows the average price trend charts of spodumene concentrate, including the long - term price trend from 2021 - 09 - 08 to 2024 - 09 - 08 and the short - term price trend in 2025 [13]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - Side - Lithium Salt Products - The report presents multiple charts related to lithium salt products, including the price trends of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the import volume and average price of lithium concentrate, the price differences between battery - grade lithium carbonate in different regions, the production volume and operating rate of lithium carbonate, and the import and export volume of lithium carbonate [15][16][17]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side - Lithium Batteries and Materials - The report provides a series of charts about lithium batteries and materials, including the apparent consumption and inventory available days of lithium carbonate, the monthly production volume and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production volume of various types of power lithium batteries [23][25][26].