棉花：震荡运行，等待基本面驱动

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a sideways trend as there is insufficient fundamental upward momentum. The market is waiting for the first supply - demand report of new cotton crops from USDA on May 13th. It will also focus on the growth of new US cotton crops, US cotton exports, and the international trade environment [24]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain in a low - level sideways movement. They are affected by weak demand expectations and external market factors. Although the basis is firm due to concentrated spot ownership and downstream rigid demand, the supply side lacks upward drivers due to expected growth in Xinjiang's cotton area and favorable weather. The demand side has limited ability to boost cotton futures, and the external market lacks substantial positive factors [2][24]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data | Futures | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Change % | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 68.26 | 69.10 | 66.22 | 66.72 | - 1.64 | - 2.40 | 100906 | - 20581 | 105821 | - 1353 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 12870 | 13015 | 12675 | 12950 | 200 | 1.57 | 808084 | 251108 | 574084 | - 6956 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 18840 | 19470 | 18680 | 19220 | 430 | 2.29 | 22251 | 9624 | 22183 | 2470 | [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton Trend: ICE cotton trended downward in a sideways movement this week, with the old - crop July contract falling more than the new - crop December contract. It was suppressed by a stronger US dollar, uncertainties in US trade relations, and market caution ahead of the China - US talks and the USDA report [1][6]. - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: As of the week ending May 1st, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 14,900 tons, a 39% weekly decrease and a 50% decrease from the four - week average. Weekly shipments were 89,600 tons, an 8% increase from the previous week and a 16% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.6008 million tons, accounting for 110% of the annual forecasted export volume, and the cumulative export shipments were 1.9202 million tons, accounting for 74% of the total annual contracts [7]. - Other Major Cotton - producing and Consuming Countries: - Brazil: April cotton exports are expected to be flat month - on - month. The state of Mato Grosso is expected to have a slight increase in seed cotton production due to expanded planting area and increased yield per unit. The preliminary April raw cotton export volume was about 239,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume from July to April was about 2.55 million tons, an increase from the previous season [9]. - India: The market is sluggish. The Cotton Corporation of India offers about 990,000 bales of cotton for sale daily, including about 12,000 bales from the 2023/24 season. The base price of S - 6 remains unchanged [9]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand is weak. Cotton sowing is progressing, with Punjab at 43% completion and Sindh at 27% due to water shortages. Cotton production is temporarily maintained at 7 - 8 million bales [10]. - Australia: March cotton exports were at a low level. The long - term forecast from May to July shows a high probability of below - normal precipitation and above - normal temperatures. The March raw cotton export volume was 22,704 tons [12]. - Bangladesh: April garment exports decreased significantly month - on - month. Spinning mills'开工 rates are limited by gas supply issues. The April export value of knitted and woven garments was $2.39 billion, and the cumulative export value from July to April increased by 10% year - on - year [13]. - Turkey: Domestic demand has declined. Yarn demand has slowed, and spinning mills'开工 rates are about 60%. The March raw cotton import volume was 81,395 tons, and the export volume was 25,039 tons [14]. - Southeast Asian Textile Industry: As of the week of May 9th, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 76%, 66.5%, and 59% respectively [15]. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Price: During the week of May 9th, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose slightly. Spot trading was generally light, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remained stable, with some cotton merchants raising their basis quotes [16]. - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of May 9th, there were 11,282 registered warehouse receipts and 853 forecast warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 12,135 receipts, equivalent to 509,670 tons [16]. - Downstream Market: The pure - cotton yarn market is entering the traditional off - season, with overall sales slowing down. The price of pure - cotton yarn remained stable, and the profit of inland textile enterprises fluctuated around the break - even point. The full - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with prices falling and orders scarce. The operating rate of weaving factories was 46.1%, and the inventory index was 40.8 days [17][18]. 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including those related to Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, textile enterprises' cotton inventory, and other aspects [20][21][22][23]. 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a sideways trend. Before concerns about new US cotton crops arise and significant changes occur in US trade agreements, it will continue to move sideways. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain in a low - level sideways movement. Attention should be paid to Xinjiang's weather, the operating rates of textile enterprises, and finished - product inventories [24].