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动力煤:煤矿库存增加,震荡偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-11 07:48

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply - demand pattern of thermal coal will remain loosely balanced, and the price will show a weak and volatile trend. In the pit - mouth area, market pessimism intensifies, the procurement enthusiasm of coal plants and platform traders declines, and most coal mines face inventory pressure. At ports, there is also high inventory pressure, terminal demand is weak, and market procurement is mainly small - scale orders. During the current off - season, it is expected to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of non - power industry demand and the progress of port inventory reduction [2][18]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Last Week's Market Review - Futures Market: Last Friday, the thermal coal contract ZC2506 had no trading. On the 28th, it opened at 931.6000 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 931.6000 yuan/ton, a minimum of 840.0000 yuan/ton, and closed at 840.0000 yuan/ton. The settlement price decreased by 51.4 yuan/ton, with 18.0000 lots traded and 0.0000 lots held [5]. - Domestic Thermal Coal Origin Quotations: In Ordos, the pit - mouth tax - included prices are 285 yuan/ton for 4000 - kcal thermal coal in Dalate Banner, 300 yuan/ton for 4500 - kcal in Dalate Banner, 450 yuan/ton for 5500 - kcal in Ejin Horo Banner, and 542 yuan/ton for 6000 - kcal in Jungar Banner [5]. - Port Inventory: As of May 10, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 7.5 million tons, at Caofeidian Port was 5.65 million tons, at Jingtang Port was 0 tons, and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 451,000 tons [7]. - Southern Port Foreign - Trade Thermal Coal Quotations: In Guangzhou Port, the tax - included warehouse - pickup prices are 734 yuan/ton for 5500 - kcal Australian coal, 649 yuan/ton for 5000 - kcal Australian coal, 480 yuan/ton for 3800 - kcal Indonesian coal, 525 yuan/ton for 4200 - kcal Indonesian coal, and 623 yuan/ton for 4800 - kcal Indonesian coal. In Fangchenggang, the tax - included warehouse - pickup prices are 485 yuan/ton for 3800 - kcal Indonesian coal and 607 yuan/ton for 4700 - kcal Indonesian coal [7]. - International Coal Prices and Freight Rates: As of May 9, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index CBCFI was 640.35, the Panama - type Freight Index (BPI) was 1353.00, the Cape - type Freight Index (BCI) was 1709.00, the Super Handysize Freight Index (BSI) was 969.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [11][13]. b) Viewpoints and Operation Suggestions - Viewpoint: The supply - demand pattern of thermal coal will remain loosely balanced, and the price will show a weak and volatile trend. In the pit - mouth area, market pessimism intensifies, the procurement enthusiasm of coal plants and platform traders declines, and most coal mines face inventory pressure. At ports, there is also high inventory pressure, terminal demand is weak, and market procurement is mainly small - scale orders. During the current off - season, it is expected to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of non - power industry demand and the progress of port inventory reduction [2][18]. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [19].