生猪：近端矛盾仍在累积，等待方向

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, pig prices are oscillating strongly. From May 5 - 11, the price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 45 yuan/kg, the pig price in Henan rose from 14.85 yuan/kg last week to 15 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide dropped from 1635 yuan/head last week to 1631 yuan/head. The average national slaughter weight increased by 0.18% week - on - week to 126.51KG. In the futures market, the pig futures price is oscillating and adjusting. The LH2509 contract closed at 13925 yuan/ton on May 9, and its basis widened from 940 yuan/ton last week to 1075 yuan/ton [2]. - Looking ahead to May 12 - 18, the spot price of pigs will oscillate and adjust. In the off - season, the group's adjustment of slaughter volume has a significant impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing, and the actual pressure can only be judged after the selling pressure test. For the futures market, the short - term contradiction of the near - term contract is still accumulating, waiting for spot verification. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity, with stop - profit and stop - loss in mind. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review (May 5 - 11) - Spot Market: Pig prices are oscillating strongly. The supply side shows that large - scale farms have no intention to actively sell and reduce weight in May, and small farmers are reluctant to sell. The demand side has the frozen - fresh price difference supporting regular demand, and the secondary fattening procurement demand has weakened compared to before the festival. The average national slaughter weight increased slightly [2]. - Futures Market: Pig futures prices are oscillating and adjusting. The LH2509 contract has a certain price range, and the basis has widened [2] 3.2 Market Outlook (May 12 - 18) - Spot Market: The price will oscillate and adjust. The group's adjustment of slaughter volume in the off - season has a large impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing [3]. - Futures Market: The short - term contradiction of the near - term contract is still accumulating, waiting for spot verification. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity. The short - term support and pressure levels of the LH2509 contract are 13000 yuan/ton and 15000 yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.3 Other Data - Basis and Monthly Spread: This week, the basis is 1075 yuan/ton, and the LH2507 - LH2509 monthly spread is - 430 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply: The average weight this week is 126.51KG. In March, the pork output was 508 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39%, and the pork import was 9.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62% [12].