外汇期货周度报告：美联储鹰派利率会议，美元反弹-20250511

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [6] Core View of the Report - Market risk appetite slightly increased this week, with most stocks rising, most bond yields increasing, and the US Treasury yield reaching 4.38%. The US dollar index rose 0.31% to 100.3, non - US currencies showed mixed performance, gold rebounded 2.6% to $3325 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 21.9, and the spot commodity index declined while Brent crude oil rebounded 4% to $63.8 per barrel [2][10] - The Fed's May interest - rate meeting was hawkish, maintaining the interest rate level and expressing concerns about economic uncertainty. Powell was not eager to cut rates, and the Fed remained cautious about rate cuts [37] - Market risk appetite recovered due to expectations of tariff easing after Sino - US high - level talks and a US - UK agreement. However, the US economy faces increasing stagflation risks, and overseas stocks are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [3][12] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite slightly increased. Most stocks rose, most bond yields increased with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.38%. The US dollar index rose to 100.3, non - US currencies had mixed performance, gold rebounded 2.6%, and Brent crude oil rebounded 4% [2][10] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stocks mostly rose. The S&P 500 fell 0.47%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.92%. Market risk appetite increased due to tariff - easing expectations. Overseas stocks are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, while the domestic stock market will continue to oscillate [11][12][14] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising to 4.38%. Emerging - market bond yields mostly declined. The US Treasury yield is expected to continue rising, while the Chinese bond market is expected to be weak and oscillating [15][19][22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose to 100.3, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB fell 0.38%, the euro fell 0.42%, etc. [25][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold rebounded 2.6% to $3325 per ounce, and Brent crude oil rebounded 4% to $63.88 per barrel. The VIX index dropped to 21.9, and the overall commodity market oscillated and declined [29][32] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The Fed's May interest - rate meeting was hawkish. The Fed maintained the interest rate, was more concerned about economic uncertainty, and was cautious about rate cuts [33][37] 4. Next Week's Important Events - Next week includes events such as Sino - US high - level talks, US April CPI, and Germany's April CPI [39]