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Q1环保超预期,火电盈利有望提升
HTSC·2025-05-11 07:35

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility sector and the environmental sector [7] Core Insights - The environmental performance exceeded expectations, and the profitability of thermal power is expected to improve due to declining coal prices [2][3] - The cash flow for environmental companies is anticipated to continue improving, supported by debt reduction policies emphasized in the recent political meetings [5] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The decline in coal prices has led to a significant increase in the net profit of thermal power companies, with a median year-on-year growth of 145% in Q4 2024, surpassing previous forecasts [12] - The expected net profit growth for thermal power companies in 2025 is projected at 5%, with market expectations for several companies being adjusted downwards by 10-20% since March 1, 2025 [15][18] Hydropower - The hydropower sector experienced a median year-on-year net profit decline of 58% in Q4 2024, but a recovery is expected with a 26% growth in Q1 2025 [24][25] - The market consensus for the net profit growth of hydropower companies in 2025 is set at 13%, with slight downward adjustments in expectations for several companies [26] Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector's net profit growth was below expectations, with a median year-on-year growth of -30% in Q4 2024, but a slight recovery to 1% in Q1 2025 is anticipated [20] - The cash flow situation for renewable energy companies has shown improvement, with many companies reporting positive operating cash flow in 2024 [22][23] Natural Gas - The natural gas supply-demand balance has shifted to a relatively loose state, impacting profitability negatively, with a median net profit growth forecast for gas companies being adjusted downwards by 3% since March 1, 2025 [4] Environmental Sector - The environmental companies reported a higher-than-expected net profit in Q1 2025, benefiting from improved cash flow due to debt reduction policies [5] - The operating cash flow for environmental companies increased by 18% year-on-year in 2024, indicating a positive trend in financial health [5][22]