能源化工尿素周度报告-20250511

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating, but it indicates that the short - term outlook for urea is bullish, with suggestions for short - term speculative trading and positive spreads between the 9 - 1 and other contracts [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The urea market is expected to run strongly in the short term. The release of fertilizer demand in Northeast and Central China, along with increased speculative behavior of traders due to export information, has led to a significant rise in urea futures prices, and the market remains strong. The 9 - 1 spread is in a positive arbitrage pattern [2][3] - The domestic urea factory ex - factory price is stable under policy control, while the trader's quotation shows a slight upward trend. The international and domestic markets are gradually aligning in terms of trading logic [2] - The production profit of urea is at the break - even line, and the daily output remains high. The raw material price is relatively stable, and the cash - flow cost of the factory is around 1364 yuan/ton, with the corresponding profit in a profitable state [29][32][33] - The "Inspection Law" policy remains strict, and urea exports are extremely low, but the theoretical export profit is high [39][41] - Agricultural demand for urea is seasonally strengthening, while industrial demand shows mixed trends, with high - level operation of compound fertilizer production and a year - on - year decline in melamine production. The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [47][54][55] - Urea inventory shows an upstream accumulation pattern, with factory inventory decreasing in most provinces and port inventory increasing slightly [62][64][65] Summary by Directory Valuation: Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis of different urea producers (Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), the spreads between different months (5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5), and the number of warehouse receipts. These data help in understanding the price relationships and market expectations [6][10][11] - It also shows the domestic and international spot prices of urea over multiple years, providing a historical perspective on price trends [16][20] Domestic Supply - Capacity: The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continues in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 4270000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3460000 tons, with several new projects planned or in the process of adjustment [24] - Production: The production profit is at the break - even line, and the daily output of urea remains high. The capacity utilization rate and production volume of different production methods (coal - based, gas - based) are also presented [29][30] - Cost: The raw material price is relatively stable, and the factory cash - flow cost line is around 1364 yuan/ton. The report also provides cost calculations for different production processes (fixed - bed, fluid - bed, natural gas) [32] - Profit: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state, as shown by the cash - flow profit charts of different production devices [33][34] - Net Import (Export): The "Inspection Law" policy remains strict, and urea exports are extremely low. However, the current large price difference between domestic and international markets results in high theoretical export profits [39][41] Domestic Demand - Agricultural Demand: Agricultural demand for urea is seasonally strengthening, with different regions having different fertilizer demand patterns based on their main crops. The construction of high - standard farmland is expected to increase the demand for urea [47][48][49] - Industrial Demand: The compound fertilizer industry maintains a high - level operation, while the production of melamine has decreased year - on - year. The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [54][55][59] Inventory - Factory Inventory: As of May 7, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0656 million tons, a decrease of 126100 tons from the previous week, a 10.58% decrease. Inventory increased in some provinces (Henan, Hubei, Qinghai, Sichuan) and decreased in others [65] - Port Inventory: As of May 8, 2025 (week 19), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 133000 tons, an increase of 15000 tons from the previous week, a 12.71% increase [65] International Urea - International Urea Price: The report shows the FOB prices of large - granular urea in different regions (China, Baltic, Middle East) and the CFR price in Brazil over multiple years, reflecting the international price trends [69][70][72] - India's Urea Market: It provides information on India's urea production, import, inventory, and demand from fiscal years 2018 - 2025, as well as details of India's urea tenders [74][80][81]