铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250511

Report Overview - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Analyst: Mo Xiaoxiong - Date: May 11, 2025 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The cast aluminum alloy market is under pressure and weaker than A00 aluminum. The supply - demand of scrap aluminum is both weak, and the alloy plant's operating rate shows a downward trend. The consumption is in the off - season, with downstream demand being weak. As the off - season deepens, prices are under significant pressure and tend to be weak. The ADC12 - A00 basis may continue to converge, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities should be noted [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Production, shipment, and social inventory of scrap aluminum are at high levels. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining. The price of scrap aluminum is firm, and the refined - scrap price difference has rebounded slightly from a low level [9][10][14]. Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The price of cast aluminum alloy is in short - term consolidation, and the ADC12 - A00 spread continues to converge. The operating rate of the cast aluminum alloy industry has been slightly reduced and is at a historical medium level. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently in a small loss. The operating rate on the production side has decreased slightly, and the explicit and implicit inventories of cast alloys have increased. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [20][25][33]. Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum Rod - Information on the production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods is provided, including the production volume and its proportion in different regions, as well as the factory inventory and its proportion [37][38][39]. Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - The consumption peak season for automobiles in the first half of the year is weak, which affects the die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and household appliances are presented, along with the PPI of auto parts and the auto inventory warning index [43][44]. Market Data Summary - In March 2025, the total supply of scrap aluminum and ADC12 decreased slightly. The month - on - month changes in total supply, social inventory, and other indicators are given, as well as the week - on - week changes in the prices of some scrap aluminum products and the month - on - month changes in vehicle and motorcycle production [7].