铅产业链周度报告-20250511

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the lead market has weak supply and demand, with significant upward pressure, but the downside space for lead prices is not expected to be large. It is expected to trade in a range. Battery companies, especially large ones, still have room to replenish inventory, which provides support when prices fall. In the second quarter, the supply of waste batteries is in a low - season. As long as demand does not collapse, the cost support of waste batteries remains significant. In the medium - to - long - term, buying at low levels can be considered, as subsequent consumption growth is expected to provide support [4] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - Price: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 16,805 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.21%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 was 1,950, with a decrease of 0.36%. The night - session closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract was 16,880, with a night - session increase of 0.45% [7] - Transaction and Position Changes: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract last Friday was 28,955 lots, a decrease of 5,479 lots from the previous week. The position was 33,454 lots, a decrease of 2,652 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 4,140 lots, an increase of 1,325 lots from the previous week. The position was 149,724 lots, an increase of 2,660 lots [7] - Spread Changes: The LME lead premium changed from - 15.21 to 4.69, an increase of 19.9. The spread between nearby and first - continuous contracts changed from - 40 to 20, an increase of 60 [7] - Inventory Changes: SHFE lead warrant inventory increased by 291 to 38,966 lots. SHFE total lead inventory increased by 2,718 to 49,504 lots. Social inventory increased by 2,200 to 47,500 tons. LME lead inventory decreased by 10,700 to 253,425 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 52.40%, a decrease of 2.50% [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - Lead Concentrate: The import volume, production, inventory, and processing fees of lead concentrate are presented in the data. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates is also shown [24][25] - Primary Lead: Some smelters in Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Shandong are under maintenance. The weekly production and operating rate of primary lead are provided in the historical data [6][26] - Recycled Lead: Recycled lead smelters are in a loss - making situation, with a loss of about 600 yuan/ton. Due to tight raw material supply and losses, most recycled lead smelters reduce production through maintenance, and the weekly production has further decreased [6] - Waste Battery: The supply of waste batteries is tight during the consumption low - season, and the price is firm [6] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, End - User) - Lead - Acid Battery: The battery market has entered the consumption low - season, with continuous accumulation of finished - product inventory and pressure on the downstream operating rate. It is expected that the low - season consumption will last throughout May, and there may be a possibility of a mid - year sales rush in June [6] - End - User: Data on the production of automobiles, motorcycles, and the actual consumption of lead are presented, reflecting the demand situation of the end - user market [33]