本周聚焦：2024年末，42家上市银行的债券投资对业绩贡献度如何？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the banking sector [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that by the end of 2024, the bond investments of 42 listed banks significantly contributed to their performance, particularly due to the continuous decline in bond market interest rates, with a cumulative drop of 88 basis points in the 10-year government bond yield [1] - The report emphasizes the substantial floating profits accumulated in the FV-OCI financial assets due to fair value changes, which banks have utilized to support their performance through timely disposals of financial assets [1][4] - The report identifies that the floating profits from FV-OCI assets are particularly significant for state-owned banks, with Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank leading with floating profit balances exceeding 50 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [1] Summary by Sections 1. FV-OCI Floating Profit Situation - By the end of 2024, the floating profit from FV-OCI assets is notably high among city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, with Lanzhou Bank's floating profit to profit ratio reaching 126.9% [2] - The report indicates that the floating profits from FV-OCI assets have a significant capital replenishment effect, particularly for city and rural commercial banks, with notable contributions to their core Tier 1 capital [3] 2. Financial Asset Disposal Income Situation - In 2024, listed banks disposed of AC financial assets generating a total income of 50.29 billion yuan, an increase of 82.5% year-on-year, while the disposal of FV-OCI financial assets generated 85.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 134.4% [4] - The report notes that the disposal income from these two asset categories accounted for 2.4% of the revenue of the sample banks, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [4][8] 3. Sector Outlook - The report suggests that while short-term impacts from tariff policies may affect exports, long-term domestic policies aimed at stabilizing real estate, promoting consumption, and enhancing social security are expected to support economic growth [9] - The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from policy catalysts, with specific banks such as Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]