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国泰君安期货原油周度报告-20250511
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-11 08:12

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second bottoming is nearing completion, and attention should be paid to the rebound. There is still a chance for a trend increase in the second half of the year, such as Brent rebounding above $80 per barrel [6]. - The current gold - oil ratio has soared continuously, and the cumulative decline has fully priced in the recession according to the relationship between crude oil demand in 2024 and global economic fluctuations. There is a short - term oversold risk, and it is not the best short - allocation target, so it is difficult to break the previous low even if it falls. The actual increase in production by OPEC+ still has uncertainties, and the negative impact may be limited [8]. - In the long term, there are several potential positive factors for oil prices, including a significant contraction in Iranian crude oil supply under US sanctions, relatively low absolute inventory levels in major regions, OPEC+ production cuts, and a slowdown in the growth of US shale oil supply. Once the macro - sentiment stabilizes, the probability of a trend rebound is relatively high, which is more likely to occur in the middle or second half of the year [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio fluctuates at a high level [14]. - Overseas inflation continues to decline, and the risk of recession increases under the background of the "trade war" [20]. - The RMB exchange rate strengthens slightly, and social financing stabilizes [22]. 2. Supply - OPEC+ core member countries: In May and June 2025, eight OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Algeria, Russia, Oman, Kazakhstan) raised their production quotas for two consecutive months, with a total increase of 822,000 barrels per day (411,000 barrels per day per month), three times the original plan. In April, the total OPEC+ production was 33.8 million barrels per day, lower than the target of 33.99 million barrels per day, but the actual production still exceeded the target by 30,000 barrels per day when considering the compensation mechanism [10]. - Non - OPEC+ countries: The US shale oil production is expected to peak at 9.3 million barrels per day in August 2025 and then decline. The rig count continues to decrease, and the number of DUC wells (drilled but uncompleted wells) increases. Shale oil companies need a WTI price close to $70 per barrel to maintain growth, and the industry is entering a "mature recession period" [10]. - Other countries: The production and export situations of countries such as Venezuela, Kazakhstan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Norway, and South Sudan have different impacts on the oil market. For example, the US sanctions on Iran may lead to a contraction in Iranian oil supply, while Kazakhstan has been over - producing [9][10]. 3. Demand - China: Chinese buyers may increase their demand for June - loaded crude oil if Saudi crude oil remains cheaper than alternatives in the spot market. China has accelerated crude oil reserves in the past three months (February - April 2025), with the strategic reserve capacity increasing by nearly 60 million barrels. Some Chinese companies have also resumed purchasing Russian ESPO mixed crude oil [12]. - America: US demand was strong at the beginning of the year, with daily demand increasing by 1.15 million barrels year - on - year in January mainly due to extremely cold weather. The domestic crude oil consumption in the US is expected to average 20.38 million barrels per day in 2025, 70,000 barrels per day lower than the previous forecast [12]. - Europe: The demand for North Sea crude oil in Europe decreases, and the proportion of Forties east - bound exports (to Asia) rebounds from 0% in the first quarter of 2024 to nearly 50% in January - April 2025 [12]. 4. Inventory - United States: US commercial inventories and Cushing regional inventories start to decline and are significantly lower than the historical average [66]. - Europe: European crude oil inventories rebound, while diesel and gasoline inventories are being depleted [70]. - China: The domestic refined oil profit margin is repaired [72]. 5. Price and Spread - North America: The North American basis rebounds slightly, and the monthly spread rebounds. The SC monthly spread may continue to strengthen, and the net long position rebounds [76][77][79][80].