KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-11 08:44Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The banking sector is expected to benefit from the influx of long-term capital and relative underweighting in indices, alongside stable dividends, indicating continued upward momentum for bank stocks [5][6] - The report anticipates stable performance in the banking sector for 2025, with steady growth in revenue and net profit, driven by improved credit structure and reduced risk in retail lending [6] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The banking sector's active equity holdings as of Q1 2025 accounted for 3.75%, which is approximately 10 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index [4][9] - The report highlights a decrease of 0.23 percentage points in bank stock holdings compared to Q4 2024 [4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the banking sector is likely to see a valuation recovery due to supportive policies and stable dividend yields, with a projected dividend yield of over 4% [5][6] - Recommended stocks include Citic Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Merchants Bank, with cyclical stocks like Suzhou Bank also highlighted [6] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the banking sector's return on equity (ROE) to price-to-book (PB) ratio dynamics are shifting from being driven by ROE to being driven by capital inflows [5] - The anticipated necessary return rate of 4% suggests that the theoretical PB valuation for the four major banks could exceed 1, indicating significant upside potential [5]