Minsheng Securities·2025-05-11 08:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Yunnan Aluminum, Huayou Cobalt, and others [4][7]. Core Views - The macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals with U.S. non-farm employment exceeding expectations while GDP contracted, leading to concerns about economic stagnation. However, domestic monetary easing measures are expected to support industrial metal prices [2][3]. - The report highlights a shift in the supply-demand balance for cobalt and lithium, with cobalt prices expected to rise due to supply constraints, while lithium prices are under pressure from high inventory levels [3]. - Precious metals are viewed positively due to increased geopolitical tensions and ongoing central bank gold purchases, which are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper: The SMM import copper concentrate index decreased by $43.11 per dry ton, indicating a tightening supply situation. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises fell to 83.49%, reflecting weak demand [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with a notable decrease in social inventory by 16,000 tons, indicating a shift from accumulation to depletion [2]. - Zinc: The report notes fluctuations in zinc prices influenced by macroeconomic factors and trade uncertainties, with LME zinc prices recorded at $2,601 per ton [2][47]. Energy Metals - Cobalt: The report indicates ongoing supply tightness due to Congo's export ban, with prices expected to enter a new upward phase as inventory levels decrease [3]. - Lithium: Demand remains weak with downstream material manufacturers waiting for further price declines, while supply remains high, leading to continued downward pressure on prices [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: The report notes that the Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for six consecutive months, supporting a bullish outlook for gold prices amid rising geopolitical tensions [3]. - Silver: Although silver prices have declined, they are expected to rebound more significantly than gold if gold prices increase, due to silver's industrial applications [3]. Key Companies and Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with Zijin Mining projected to have an EPS of 1.57 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 11 [4]. - Other recommended companies include Luoyang Molybdenum, Yunnan Aluminum, and Huayou Cobalt, with similar positive outlooks on their earnings and valuations [4].