汽车周观点：5月第1周乘用车环比-5.9%，继续看好汽车板块-20250511

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, emphasizing three main themes: AI robotics, AI intelligence, and favorable market conditions [3]. Core Insights - In the first week of May, the total number of compulsory insurance for passenger cars was 416,000 units, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.9% but a month-on-month increase of 26.5% [2][49]. - The SW automotive index increased by 0.5%, with the best-performing segments being motorcycles and others (+2.7%) and automotive parts (+2.4%) [2]. - The report highlights significant developments, including the launch of the 2025 model of Li Auto's L series, which features upgrades in intelligence and battery technology, while maintaining the same official guide price [2][3]. Weekly Market Review - The automotive sector ranked 14th in A-shares and 7th in Hong Kong stocks this week [7][10]. - The SW motorcycle and other segments performed the best within the automotive sector this week [15]. - The report indicates that the automotive parts sector's valuation has risen, while the valuations for SW automotive, passenger vehicles, and commercial vehicles have decreased [33]. Industry Trends - The report anticipates a strong demand for passenger vehicles throughout the year, driven by new scrappage and replacement policies, projecting a retail sales forecast of 23.83 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [50]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 48.4%, with 201,000 units sold in the first week of May, marking a week-on-week decrease of 13.9% [49]. - The report predicts that the competition in intelligent driving among automakers will intensify in 2025, with L3 automation expected to penetrate 28% of new energy vehicles [53]. Company-Specific Developments - Geely Automobile plans to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr, indicating a strategic move to enhance its market position [2][3]. - The report notes that Wenchan's subsidiary has secured a new client for a three-in-one motor shell, with expected production starting in the second half of 2025 and projected sales of 200-250 million yuan over five years [2][3]. - The report also highlights the performance of covered stocks, with Geely Automobile, Zhongding, and Li Auto showing significant gains this week [24].